Predicting kickers is nonsense, so let’s see if we can get an idea of who the most consistent kickers are. They may not help you winyour week, but they also (hopefully) won’t lose it for you.
First, a look at the past to see what we might expect from the future. Here are the kickers from 2015 and 2016 who played more than 10 games with one team, arranged by highest minimum score:
Matt Bryant never got below 6 points last year, and his mean fantasy points per game was one of the highest in the league. He’s almost certainly taken in your league this year, but take a quick look and snatch him up if possible.
Boswell, Tucker, and Gostkowski are all up here with pretty high mean points per game, and would have been good to have last year or the year before. There are some weird ones up here, though, like Succop and Nugent and McManus, who had high floors but low averages.
This is the highest floor, but what about the smallest window? I found the 10th and 90th percentile for each player’s season, then took the difference. This is another was of saying that 80% of the time they were between these two values. Arranged by smallest window, it looks like this:
I actually wouldn’t have been too happy with many of these guys. Nugent (2015) had the smallest score window; 80% of the time he scored between 5 and 10 points, with a median of 7. That’s not bad, but it’s not great, either. Catanzaro (2015) and Prater (2016) were slightly better with medians of 8.5 and 8. But you halso had guys on this list like Zuerlein, Franks, and Barth, who had small windows, but also small medians (4 or 5 points).
So clearly we can have consistency with high or low median scores, and we can expect some of the top kickers to have years with a minimum of 3 or 4. Let’s take a look at how the top guys are doing so far this year:
First: all of these quantile windows are unsustainable. The lowest from the last 2 years was 5, and all of these are below that. There have only been 4 weeks so far. I should revisit this later in the season, but for now, let’s look at these results.
Catanzaro, Gano, Hopkins, McManus, and Lutz all make for interesting options this year. They have all been pretty consistent in their weekly scores with 2 or more FGs per week and have pretty high median scores on the year (greater than or equal to 8) and high minimums.
Hopkins and Lutz are both on byes this week, but I’m going to go grab Gano or Catanzaro if they’re available. Catanzaro is a tough sell on the Jets offense, but remember: kickers are random, so he might be good or bad. At least so far he’s been consistent, and for kickers that’s something.