Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 11 K Predictions

I’ll be honest with you all. I’m amazing at this.

Last week I created 4 models, all of which used the same 5 parameters:

  • Predicted team score
  • Predicted opponent score
  • Which team is the home team (stadium)
  • The player
  • The opponent

With a few extra details:

  • Model A: 2016 data, survival model (Weibull regression)
  • Model B: 2015 and 2016 data, survival model (Weibull regression)
  • Model C: 2016 data, normal linear regression
  • Model D: 2015 and 2016 data, normal linear regression

The models were all comparably accurate, though Model B was better by a little. If I get a chance to play with it this week I may add a new model but I wanted to get this out tonight before the waiver deadline for the week.

Model A:

Model B:

Model C:

Model D:

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.A

Model.B

Model.C

Model.D

1

Greg Zuerlein

Dan Bailey

Graham Gano

Dan Bailey

2

Graham Gano

Mike Nugent

Adam Vinatieri

Justin Tucker

3

Josh Brown

Matt Prater

Josh Brown

Matt Prater

4

Matt Prater

Justin Tucker

Dustin Hopkins

Adam Vinatieri

5

Adam Vinatieri

Adam Vinatieri

Greg Zuerlein

Josh Brown

6

Justin Tucker

Josh Brown

Justin Tucker

Dustin Hopkins

7

Dustin Hopkins

Dustin Hopkins

Matt Prater

Stephen Gostkowski

8

Mike Nugent

Stephen Gostkowski

Mike Nugent

Graham Gano

9

Connor Barth

Graham Gano

Cairo Santos

Mike Nugent

10

Cairo Santos

Connor Barth

Sebastian Janikowski

Connor Barth

11

Phil Dawson

Steven Hauschka

Ryan Succop

Cairo Santos

12

Sebastian Janikowski

Chris Boswell

Connor Barth

Chris Boswell

13

Andrew Franks

Blair Walsh

Andrew Franks

Steven Hauschka

14

Caleb Sturgis

Cairo Santos

Stephen Gostkowski

Blair Walsh

15

Stephen Gostkowski

Phil Dawson

Caleb Sturgis

Ryan Succop

Man I really don’t understand this sometimes. Dan Bailey has done fine this year, but he’s going up against BAL who give up the fewest points to kickers. Seriously, don’t listen to me. All of these models are probably fine and I still have no way to pick between them. I’ll keep working on this. Kickers are tricky as hell.

Week 11 DEF Evaluation

Week 11 DEF Predictions