Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 11 K Evaluation

I’m having a tough time innovating my kicker models. This week I used the same 4 models that I did last week and (as you’ll see) got similar results. All 4 models did well, but none really stood out. My evaluation is below, but note that I’m using Yahoo’s 6 experts to compare my models against. If I don’t write down FantasyPros’ Expert Concensus Ranking (ECR) by Monday night then it’s gone forever. Or it’s just cached somewhere, I suppose, but I haven’t tried to track it down.

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.A

Model.B

Model.C

Model.D

Yahoo

Actual.Rank

Actual.Score

1

Greg Zuerlein

Dan Bailey

Graham Gano

Dan Bailey

Stephen Gostkowski

Dan Carpenter

13

2

Graham Gano

Mike Nugent

Adam Vinatieri

Justin Tucker

Dan Bailey

Graham Gano

12

3

Josh Brown

Matt Prater

Josh Brown

Matt Prater

Justin Tucker

Chris Boswell

11

4

Matt Prater

Justin Tucker

Dustin Hopkins

Adam Vinatieri

Adam Vinatieri

Jason Myers

10

5

Adam Vinatieri

Adam Vinatieri

Greg Zuerlein

Josh Brown

Stephen Hauschka

Sebastian Janikowski

10

6

Justin Tucker

Josh Brown

Justin Tucker

Dustin Hopkins

Graham Gano

Dan Bailey

10

7

Dustin Hopkins

Dustin Hopkins

Matt Prater

Stephen Gostkowski

Mason Crosby

Matt Prater

9

8

Mike Nugent

Stephen Gostkowski

Mike Nugent

Graham Gano

Cairo Santos

Nick Novak

9

9

Connor Barth

Graham Gano

Cairo Santos

Mike Nugent

Sebastian Janikowski

Steven Hauschka

9

10

Cairo Santos

Connor Barth

Sebastian Janikowski

Connor Barth

Ryan Succop

Adam Vinatieri

7

11

Phil Dawson

Steven Hauschka

Ryan Succop

Cairo Santos

Matt Prater

Dustin Hopkins

7

12

Sebastian Janikowski

Chris Boswell

Connor Barth

Chris Boswell

Chandler Catanzaro

Stephen Gostkowski

7

13

Andrew Franks

Blair Walsh

Andrew Franks

Steven Hauschka

Chris Boswell

Mason Crosby

7

14

Caleb Sturgis

Cairo Santos

Stephen Gostkowski

Blair Walsh

Dan Carpenter

Chandler Catanzaro

7

15

Stephen Gostkowski

Phil Dawson

Caleb Sturgis

Ryan Succop

Robbie Gould

Justin Tucker

6

Model.A

Model.B

Model.C

Model.D

Yahoo

44

44

42

44

45

Same models, different day. Yahoo and I did about the same this week and no models really stood out. I don’t have much to say about it this week so I’m not going to draw out this post.

The kickers didn’t distinguish themselves so neither did the models. The DEF scores this week were a perfect example of tiers but the kickers were a good example of a smooth distribution. Dan Carpenter was the best with 13, but even the #15 kicker got 6 points. Nobody saw Jason Myers being up there.

I also never filtered out Josh Brown or Blair Walsh. I’ll have to come up with something to do there. The way I have it set up now it’ll leave them in all season, so I’ll have to figure that out.

Week 12 K Prediction

Week 12 DEF Predictions