Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 12 K Prediction

I’ve been using 4 models for the last few weeks, but when I tried to cut out Josh Brown and Blair Walsh I couldn’t run the Weibull regression models anymore (models A and B). I’m not sure what the problem is and I wanted to get this done before Thanksgiving, so I’m pushing the problem off for now. Since all 4 models have roughly the same accuracy anyway it’s not a huge loss for now.

The remaining models (C and D) use the following factors:

  • Predicted team score
  • Predicted opponent score
  • Which team is the home team (stadium)
  • The player
  • The opponent

With:

  • Model C: 2016 data
  • Model D: 2015 and 2016 data

Model A:

(Temporarily out of service)

Model B:

(Temporarily out of service)

Model C:

Model D:

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.C

Model.D

1

Matt Bryant

Matt Bryant

2

Josh Lambo

Josh Lambo

3

Cody Parkey

Chris Boswell

4

Nick Novak

Nick Novak

5

Andrew Franks

Stephen Gostkowski

6

Adam Vinatieri

Robbie Gould

7

Chris Boswell

Cody Parkey

8

Phil Dawson

Steven Hauschka

9

Steven Hauschka

Matt Prater

10

Dan Carpenter

Cairo Santos

11

Dustin Hopkins

Dan Carpenter

12

Matt Prater

Caleb Sturgis

13

Stephen Gostkowski

Dan Bailey

14

Cairo Santos

Sebastian Janikowski

15

Sebastian Janikowski

Wil Lutz

Matt Bryant and Josh Lambo are at the top of both lists, and both have been doing great this year. Looking down these lists I don’t see anything… wait. Who the hell is Andrew Franks? Miami’s kicker going up against SF. SF gives up points to kickers, but only the 7th most. Franks is fine, but hasn’t had the most opportunity this year. I’d grab Novak or Boswell first. In fact, I will.

I know I need to either dramatically improve my accuracy or start giving readers better stories, but for now I don’t have much to say. All my models are OK, Yahoo is OK, FantasyPros is OK. I have to step up my kicker game. If I’m going to get the same as everyone else what’s the point?

Oh yeah, because I WILL be better eventually. Because I’m awesome. I just need to keep working on it.

Week 12 DEF Evaluation

Week 11 K Evaluation