Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 13 K Predictions

I used 2 models last week that gave slightly different results but the same accuracy. FantasyPros gave a different list and the same accuracy. See where I’m going with this?

Models C and D use the following factors:

  • Predicted team score
  • Predicted opponent score
  • Which team is the home team (stadium)
  • The player
  • The opponent

With:

  • Model C: 2016 data
  • Model D: 2015 and 2016 data

Model C:

Model D:

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.C

Model.D

1

Brandon McManus

Chris Boswell

2

Justin Tucker

Brandon McManus

3

Chris Boswell

Adam Vinatieri

4

Sebastian Janikowski

Dan Bailey

5

Jason Myers

Nick Folk

6

Phil Dawson

Stephen Gostkowski

7

Adam Vinatieri

Caleb Sturgis

8

Matt Bryant

Sebastian Janikowski

9

Dan Bailey

Cairo Santos

10

Cairo Santos

Justin Tucker

11

Dustin Hopkins

Robbie Gould

12

Nick Folk

Jason Myers

13

Wil Lutz

Wil Lutz

14

Caleb Sturgis

Steven Hauschka

15

Nick Novak

Matt Bryant

You know I actually drafted Chris Boswell? He quietly tied Stephen Gostkoswki for fantasy points per game last year (9.4 FPPG according to FFToday.com and 10.25/10.5 FPPG from ESPN for Boswell/Gostkowski) but has fallen short this year. Not in misses, but rather opportunities. Pittsburgh has weird streaks and one week he’ll have 5 extra points and the next he’ll have 1 field goal opportunity. I also feel like they like 2-point conversions a little more than other teams, but that’s anecdotal.

In my league many of my top predictions are available, but I have no faith in any of these models. I don’t think averaging them will do much either. I think at this point I’m just looking for consistency among kickers, and you can’t really beat Nick Novak or Matt Prater for consistency this year. If you want to roll the dice, Hopkins and Gano both have huge weeks half the time.

Kickers are tricky. This is going to be a big project for me after the season ends. For now though, maybe don’t overthink it.

Week 13 DEF Evaluation

Week 12 K Evaluation