Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 15 K Predictions

Two more weeks, then I can make up stuff at my own pace! No time last weekend to make up a new model, but Model C did well, so let’s take a closer look at it this week:

I used 2 models last week that gave slightly different results but the same accuracy. FantasyPros gave a different list and the same accuracy. See where I’m going with this?

Models C and D use the following factors:

  • Predicted team score
  • Predicted opponent score
  • Which team is the home team (stadium)
  • The player
  • The opponent

With:

  • Model C: 2016 data
  • Model D: 2015 and 2016 data

Model C:

Model D:

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.C

Model.D

1

Matt Bryant

Matt Bryant

2

Justin Tucker

Nick Novak

3

Dustin Hopkins

Dustin Hopkins

4

Nick Novak

Dan Bailey

5

Matt Prater

Stephen Gostkowski

6

Chandler Catanzaro

Wil Lutz

7

Wil Lutz

Justin Tucker

8

Kai Forbath

Chris Boswell

9

Stephen Gostkowski

Brandon McManus

10

Brandon McManus

Steven Hauschka

11

Phil Dawson

Adam Vinatieri

12

Sebastian Janikowski

Cairo Santos

13

Adam Vinatieri

Mason Crosby

14

Nick Folk

Sebastian Janikowski

15

Cairo Santos

Chandler Catanzaro

Bryant, Tucker, and Novak are all right where they should be. Hopkins is inconsistent (and has more than a few misses to his name) but gets quite a few opportunities some weeks. Forbath, though, was right where I thought he would be last week (nailed it!) and I kinda like him, but I’m not entirely sure what to make of him. He’s done great in his 4 games and he’s up against Indy this week (3rd most points to kickers). If he’s available in your league I’d grab him. I have Matt Prater though, so I will probably not be switching. That dude is the boss and has never gotten 5 or fewer points (except week 10, his bye week, but even then reports have it that he kicked a few field goals in a backyard game because he just can’t stop being awesome).

The rest of my top 10 looks good me too. Will Lutz did well last week (10 points) and on an offense that scores as frequently as NO, he’s always a consistent pick (only 3 games with 5 or fewer points). You’ve got your -kowskis, both Jani- and Gost-, that are always close to a huge game but only really come up with one 50% of the time. NO has only given up less than 5 point once this year (to LA’s kicker, Zuerlein), which would make Catanzaro a sure-fire pick this week if he weren’t so inconsistent himself. You could do a lot worse though. It would be really tough to trust Barth or Zuerlein any week.

Go forth, pick up Kai Forbath, and prosper!

Week 15 DEF Evaluation

Week 14 K Evaluation