Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 15 DEF Evaluation

The penultimate fantasy week came an went, and my models directed me to a great team (MIA) this week. It wasn’t enough to drag the rest of my failure of a team to a win, but Miami was a shining diamond in the middle of the dark hole was was Week 15. Last week I used the same six models I’ve been using and expected Models A and F to be the best. Let’s see what we had:

Rank

Model.A

Model.B

Model.C

Model.D

Model.E

Model.F

FP.top.20

DWC

True.Order

True.Score

1

KC

KC

KC

BUF

OAK

SEA

SEA

SEA

IND

18

2

SEA

BUF

SEA

NYG

BAL

BUF

BUF

BUF

NE

17

3

MIN

MIN

HOU

SEA

SEA

HOU

HOU

NYG

MIA

15

4

BUF

MIA

MIA

OAK

BUF

KC

BAL

MIA

DAL

13

5

MIA

SEA

BUF

MIA

NYG

MIA

KC

GB

NYG

12

6

OAK

ATL

MIN

KC

PIT

OAK

MIN

BAL

SEA

11

7

BAL

OAK

WAS

HOU

LA

BAL

MIA

MIN

JAC

10

8

PHI

WAS

OAK

GB

ATL

NE

ATL

HOU

GB

9

9

ATL

PHI

BAL

ATL

CAR

WAS

GB

KC

BUF

9

10

WAS

BAL

GB

NE

CHI

MIN

NE

PIT

KC

8

11

HOU

HOU

DEN

PIT

DAL

PIT

DEN

ATL

CAR

8

12

GB

GB

ATL

TB

DET

GB

NYG

NYJ

OAK

8

13

ARI

ARI

NE

MIN

NE

NYG

ARI

DAL

ATL

8

14

NO

NO

PHI

CAR

TB

NO

DET

NE

ARI

7

15

NYG

DEN

PIT

LA

DEN

ATL

PIT

ARI

PHI

7

Model.A

Model.B

Model.C

Model.D

Model.E

Model.F

FP.top.20

DWC

54

48

56

51

60

61

64

55

In a huge bounce-back from Week 14 all of the models did fairly well with little to distinguish them as far as their scores go. Model B did the best, and in a broken clock / blind squirrel situation Model D did second best.

Bespite the overall improved score from last week there are a few notable additions and omissions. Nobody really predicted IND or NE being at the top. KC, SEA, and BUF all did well but not toward the top as predicted by many models, and HOU and MIN didn’t even show up in the final 15. Still, solid performances all around (and shout out to Defense Wins Championships for calling NYG!).

This week I’m still going to consider Models A and F the models to beat. I’m in the Toilet Bowl this week, and I need all the help I can get.

Week 16 DEF Predictions

Week 15 K Predictions