Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 16 K Predictions

The season of predicting kickers is mercifully at an end! This is the last week I’ll be predicting kickers, but if you want to see week 17 for whatever reason please hit me up at @FFDataStream.

On to the final predicitons:

Models C and D use the following factors:

  • Predicted team score
  • Predicted opponent score
  • Which team is the home team (stadium)
  • The player
  • The opponent

With:

  • Model C: 2016 data
  • Model D: 2015 and 2016 data

Model C:

Model D:

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.C

Model.D

1

Caleb Sturgis

Caleb Sturgis

2

Sebastian Janikowski

Stephen Gostkowski

3

Nick Novak

Ryan Succop

4

Ryan Succop

Sebastian Janikowski

5

Matt Bryant

Justin Tucker

6

Dustin Hopkins

Dan Bailey

7

Stephen Gostkowski

Steven Hauschka

8

Wil Lutz

Nick Novak

9

Justin Tucker

Matt Bryant

10

Dan Bailey

Chris Boswell

11

Matt Prater

Wil Lutz

12

Greg Zuerlein

Robbie Gould

13

Mike Nugent

Adam Vinatieri

14

Roberto Aguayo

Matt Prater

15

Steven Hauschka

Mason Crosby

I’m going to try to get Sturgis or Janikowski this week and I’d suggest you do the same. Both great kickers, both pretty consistent, both in good matchups. I’m not going to overthink it this week.

Ryan Succop is up against JAX who have given up almost a point and a half more to kickers this year than any other team (per ESPN). If I really trusted my models he’d be the pick for the week if I couldn’t get Sturgis.

Novak is consistent and good, Hopkins is inconsistent and good. There’s nobody on this list that I would hate to have, but other than those top two nobody I’d really try too hard to get.

Finally, I know Kai Forbath and Matt Prater don’t show up on here, but they’re consistently good and worth it if you just want a kicker who will almost certainly get at least 5 points. Kai Forbath did okay last week (2 FGs for 8 points and the only player on MIN to score), but he doesn’t show up this week in either model. This would be the 3rd week in which I recommended him, but I’d say skip him this week. Definitely better than Blar Walsh, but the Vikings offense really has not been dynamic this week. Prater is a field goal kicking machine, but a machine specifically designed to kick almost exactly 2 field goals every week. Against Dallas I’d predict he hits that number, but probably no more or less. Maybe an extra point or two also, but not a ton.

Good luck in your finals! (except Ben)

Comparing DEF models throughout the 2016 season

Week 15 K Evaluation