Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 13 K Evaluation

No innovation this week. Same 2 models, same results.

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.C

Model.D

Yahoo

Actual.Rank

Actual.Score

1

Brandon McManus

Brandon McManus

Justin Tucker

Matt Prater

19

2

Jason Myers

Chris Boswell

Stephen Gostkowski

Steven Hauschka

17

3

Cairo Santos

Adam Vinatieri

Dan Bailey

Mike Nugent

15

4

Justin Tucker

Stephen Gostkowski

Matt Bryant

Stephen Gostkowski

15

5

Phil Dawson

Nick Folk

Matt Prater

Adam Vinatieri

14

6

Dustin Hopkins

Dan Bailey

Cairo Santos

Dustin Hopkins

14

7

Sebastian Janikowski

Josh Brown

Stephen Hauschka

Sebastian Janikowski

13

8

Matt Bryant

Sebastian Janikowski

Adam Vinatieri

Matt Bryant

13

9

Adam Vinatieri

Cairo Santos

Will Lutz

Justin Tucker

11

10

Dan Bailey

Caleb Sturgis

Mason Crosby

Brandon McManus

9

11

Chris Boswell

Justin Tucker

Josh Lambo

Chandler Catanzaro

8

12

Nick Folk

Matt Bryant

Brandon McManus

Phil Dawson

7

13

Josh Brown

Jason Myers

Sebastian Janikowski

Dan Carpenter

7

14

Nick Novak

Phil Dawson

Dustin Hopkins

Connor Barth

7

15

Caleb Sturgis

Dustin Hopkins

Chandler Catanzaro

Dan Bailey

6

Model.C

Model.D

Yahoo

59

77

74

I had largely given up on Hauschka for the year, but he did great this week. My models left him out of the top 15 completely. In fact, my models completely missed the top 3 kickers last week and didn’t think much of #4 (Gostkowski) either. 

It's disheartening, but I'm not much better than Yahoo.  Model C did better than the others, but I think a one-time improvement in accuracy of 10 is within the scatter. When the season ends I’ll take a better look at this, but for now I’ll keep using my models and treating them about as accurate as anything else (i.e., guessing).

Week 14 K Prediction

Week 14 DEF Prediction