Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 14 K Prediction

I’m keeping the same two models this week that I used last week, but if I have time this weekend I’m going to see if I can’t make up a new model and squeeze out a little more accuracy. Last week Model C did a little better than Yahoo or Model D, so let’s see what it has to say:

I used 2 models last week that gave slightly different results but the same accuracy. FantasyPros gave a different list and the same accuracy. See where I’m going with this?

Models C and D use the following factors:

  • Predicted team score
  • Predicted opponent score
  • Which team is the home team (stadium)
  • The player
  • The opponent

With:

  • Model C: 2016 data
  • Model D: 2015 and 2016 data

Model C:

Model D:

Model Summary:

Rank

Model.C

Model.D

1

Matt Prater

Justin Tucker

2

Kai Forbath

Josh Lambo

3

Justin Tucker

Stephen Gostkowski

4

Dustin Hopkins

Matt Prater

5

Dan Bailey

Dan Bailey

6

Josh Lambo

Graham Gano

7

Jason Myers

Kai Forbath

8

Steven Hauschka

Jason Myers

9

Graham Gano

Steven Hauschka

10

Matt Bryant

Cairo Santos

11

Cairo Santos

Phil Dawson

12

Brandon McManus

Dustin Hopkins

13

Caleb Sturgis

Wil Lutz

14

Adam Vinatieri

Chris Boswell

15

Sebastian Janikowski

Nick Folk

Who the hell is Kai Forbath?

Okay, it looks like he’s Blair Walsh’s replacement on the Vikings and is doing… OK so far. He played well in weeks 11, 12, and 13 and is 6/6 on FGs and 4/5 on extra points, averaging just over 7 fantasy points per game. His schedule looks great for the next few weeks as well: JAC, IND, GB, and CHI are all in the top 7 in giving up points to kickers (per ESPN).

Matt Prater did well in Week 13 and I suspect he’ll be fine this week as well. He has one of the highest floors of any kicker this year, never scoring below 6 points in a game. Then again, when my models rank people highly they never seem to actually end up at the top. If you have him, play him, and if not take solace in the randomness of the universe (and weekly kicker scores).

As for the rest of the top 5, not a lot of big surprises there. Hopkins, Bailey, Tucker, and Lambo are all good picks every week. In the middle of the pack small differences put hit-and-miss guys toward the upper-middle (like Jason Myers) and a few somewhat-more dependable guys toward the lower-middle (like Caleb Sturgis). I lean toward the more dependable guys with good matchups, but that strategy has mostly been getting me 7 to 10 points. If you want to roll the dice a little more, Hopkins is the guy for you.

Week 14 DEF Evaluation

Week 13 K Evaluation