Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 6 K Predictions

As of last week, Model F is almost better than randomly guessing. That’s pretty cool, but I think unsustainable. Let’s see the models:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017

Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Harrison ButkerHarrison ButkerHarrison ButkerMatt BryantMatt BryantHarrison ButkerStephen Gostkowski
2Brandon McManusJake ElliottJake ElliottJustin TuckerStephen GostkowskiJake ElliottWil Lutz
3Jake ElliottJustin TuckerMatt BryantStephen GostkowskiDustin HopkinsJustin TuckerRyan Succop
4Dustin HopkinsKa'imi FairbairnStephen GostkowskiDustin HopkinsWil LutzMatt BryantChris Boswell
5Justin TuckerMatt BryantWil LutzBrandon McManusKa'imi FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnJake Elliott
6Stephen GostkowskiWil LutzJustin TuckerWil LutzBrandon McManusStephen GostkowskiAldrick Rosas
7Greg ZuerleinStephen GostkowskiGraham GanoKa'imi FairbairnHarrison ButkerDustin HopkinsZane Gonzalez
8Graham GanoDustin HopkinsKa'imi FairbairnHarrison ButkerGraham GanoWil LutzYounghoe Koo
9Matt BryantBrandon McManusDustin HopkinsGraham GanoJustin TuckerBrandon McManusMatt Prater
10Giorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioBrandon McManusJason MyersGiorgio TavecchioGraham GanoAndrew Franks
11Jason MyersGraham GanoGiorgio TavecchioAdam VinatieriPatrick MurrayGiorgio TavecchioJason Myers
12Ka'imi FairbairnJason MyersMatt PraterGiorgio TavecchioJason MyersJason MyersDustin Hopkins
13Wil LutzAdam VinatieriChris BoswellJake ElliottMatt PraterMatt PraterJustin Tucker
14Phil DawsonMatt PraterRobbie GouldMatt PraterKai ForbathGreg ZuerleinKa'imi Fairbairn
15Adam VinatieriGreg ZuerleinAdam VinatieriGreg ZuerleinRyan SuccopKai ForbathMatt Bryant
16Mason CrosbyKai ForbathChandler CatanzaroKai ForbathMason CrosbyPhil DawsonPhil Dawson
17Robbie GouldPhil DawsonJason MyersPatrick MurrayAdam VinatieriRobbie GouldGiorgio Tavecchio
18Kai ForbathChris BoswellMason CrosbyPhil DawsonJake ElliottChris BoswellConnor Barth
19Matt PraterRyan SuccopGreg ZuerleinRyan SuccopPhil DawsonRyan SuccopGreg Zuerlein
20Chandler CatanzaroRobbie GouldKai ForbathChris BoswellChris BoswellMason CrosbyBrandon McManus
21Ryan SuccopMason CrosbyRyan SuccopMason CrosbyGreg ZuerleinAdam VinatieriChandler Catanzaro
22Chris BoswellChandler CatanzaroConnor BarthRobbie GouldYounghoe KooChandler CatanzaroHarrison Butker
23Patrick MurrayConnor BarthPhil DawsonYounghoe KooChandler CatanzaroConnor BarthAdam Vinatieri
24Younghoe KooPatrick MurrayAndrew FranksChandler CatanzaroRobbie GouldPatrick MurrayMason Crosby
25Aldrick RosasYounghoe KooYounghoe KooConnor BarthAndrew FranksYounghoe KooKai Forbath
26Connor BarthAndrew FranksAldrick RosasZane GonzalezZane GonzalezAndrew FranksRobbie Gould
27Zane GonzalezAldrick RosasPatrick MurrayAldrick RosasConnor BarthAldrick RosasGraham Gano
28Andrew FranksZane GonzalezZane GonzalezAndrew FranksAldrick RosasZane GonzalezPatrick Murray


Conclusions


Look at that random guess this week. If you were to ask me for my top 5, I’d probably pick most of that top 5. Rosas and Gonzalez mess it up a bit, but my guess is that Random will win this week.

If you saw the Week 5 roundup, Model F did incredibly well last week, so I’m going to be picking from that list this week. That means I’m targeting Butker, Gano, Lutz, or Fairbairn, all of whom may be available in your league (Someone definitely has Bryant and Gostkowski). Honestly, someone probably has Lutz, too. Why do people stash kickers? Don’t you know they’re random?

Week 6 DEF Predictions

Week 5 QB Results