Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 6 QB Predictions

At least one prediction from last week came true: I beat my brother handily. However, it had nothing to do with my predictions for QB, K, or DST. I’m doing alright overall, but when it comes time to actually pick one for myself I’m biffing.

The top 5 QBs from last week (depending on your scoring system) were Watson, Wentz, Prescott, Newton, and Smith. Kevin Hogan had a good week taking over for Kizer while Trubisky’s first start was a little slow. I’ll see if I can model them this week given the limited data, but my models may protest and you’ll have to live with seeing some names up there that just shouldn’t be.

I once heard about a fun race where the winner is the one who places in the exact middle of the group. This causes everyone to just bunch up around the middle and jostle each other had generally have a fun time. I bring this up because that’s what’s happening with my models, minus the fun time. B, C, D, F, E, G, H, and even I have been OK this year, with D, E, and I marginally better than the rest. I like I the most since it still has that new-model smell, but looking back at the beginning of the year I was equally excited about the Gibbs sampler models (D and E), and it’s nice to see them finally coming into their own.

Those are the three I’ll be looking at this week or recommendations. Let’s see them all:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017
GPLSXXXXX X2017
HLMXXX X X2015-2017
IMany LMsXXXXXX 2015-2017
JMany LMsXXXXXX 2016-2017*

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png


Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Drew BreesDrew BreesTom BradyDrew BreesDrew BreesDeshaun WatsonMatt RyanDeshaun WatsonDeshaun WatsonDeshaun Watson
2Tom BradyDeshaun WatsonDrew BreesTom BradyTom BradyDrew BreesDrew BreesCarson PalmerDrew BreesTom Brady
3Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsKirk CousinsMatthew StaffordMatthew StaffordTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyKirk CousinsDrew Brees
4Cam NewtonTom BradyCam NewtonCam NewtonKirk CousinsKirk CousinsKirk CousinsMatt RyanTom BradyKirk Cousins
5Deshaun WatsonCam NewtonAaron RodgersKirk CousinsCam NewtonAaron RodgersDeshaun WatsonJameis WinstonCam NewtonMatt Ryan
6Jameis WinstonJameis WinstonDeshaun WatsonAaron RodgersMatt RyanCam NewtonAlex SmithKirk CousinsJameis WinstonAaron Rodgers
7Joe FlaccoAaron RodgersMatt RyanMatt RyanPhilip RiversBlake BortlesTrevor SiemianCam NewtonMatt RyanMarcus Mariota
8Aaron RodgersMatt RyanJameis WinstonDeshaun WatsonAaron RodgersMarcus MariotaCam NewtonDrew BreesMatthew StaffordJosh McCown
9Blake BortlesMatthew StaffordMatthew StaffordJameis WinstonDeshaun WatsonJameis WinstonMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversAaron RodgersJameis Winston
10Alex SmithAlex SmithBlake BortlesPhilip RiversJameis WinstonMatt RyanJoe FlaccoAaron RodgersMarcus MariotaCam Newton
11Matt RyanJoe FlaccoBen RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerJoe FlaccoMatthew StaffordJameis WinstonMatthew StaffordAlex SmithBlake Bortles
12Matthew StaffordBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesAlex SmithBen RoethlisbergerE.J. ManuelBrian HoyerJoe FlaccoPhilip Rivers
13Philip RiversPhilip RiversPhilip RiversMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesAlex SmithBlake BortlesTrevor SiemianBlake BortlesCase Keenum
14Marcus MariotaCarson PalmerAlex SmithCarson PalmerCarson PalmerJoe FlaccoMarcus MariotaBen RoethlisbergerPhilip RiversMatthew Stafford
15Carson PalmerMarcus MariotaJoe FlaccoAlex SmithMarcus MariotaCarson PalmerCase KeenumCarson WentzJosh McCownCarson Palmer
16Trevor SiemianJosh McCownCarson PalmerJosh McCownTrevor SiemianPhilip RiversAaron RodgersJosh McCownCarson PalmerAlex Smith
17Brian HoyerBrian HoyerCarson WentzJoe FlaccoBrian HoyerTrevor SiemianJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettMitchell TrubiskyBen Roethlisberger
18Ben RoethlisbergerMitchell TrubiskyTrevor SiemianTrevor SiemianJosh McCownCarson WentzCarson WentzMarcus MariotaTrevor SiemianJoe Flacco
19Mitchell TrubiskyTrevor SiemianEli ManningBrian HoyerBen RoethlisbergerCase KeenumBen RoethlisbergerMitchell TrubiskyCase KeenumJacoby Brissett
20Jay CutlerBen RoethlisbergerBrian HoyerCase KeenumCase KeenumBrian HoyerCarson PalmerKevin HoganBrian HoyerMitchell Trubisky
21Case KeenumCase KeenumCase KeenumJacoby BrissettJay CutlerJacoby BrissettPhilip RiversEli ManningBen RoethlisbergerTrevor Siemian
22Carson WentzJay CutlerJosh McCownCarson WentzCarson WentzJosh McCownJared GoffCase KeenumJacoby BrissettCarson Wentz
23Eli ManningCarson WentzJay CutlerJay CutlerJacoby BrissettEli ManningJosh McCownAlex SmithJay CutlerJay Cutler
24Josh McCownEli ManningMitchell TrubiskyEli ManningEli ManningJay CutlerBrian HoyerE.J. ManuelCarson WentzBrian Hoyer
25Jared GoffJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyJared GoffJay CutlerJay CutlerJared GoffEli Manning
26Kevin HoganKevin HoganJared GoffKevin HoganKevin HoganMitchell TrubiskyKevin HoganJoe FlaccoEli ManningKevin Hogan
27Jacoby BrissettJared GoffKevin HoganJared GoffJared GoffKevin HoganMitchell TrubiskyBlake BortlesKevin HoganJared Goff
28E.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelEli ManningJared GoffE.J. ManuelE.J. Manuel

Conclusions

[NOTES: Remember, rookies are hard to model until they have a few weeks behind them, and even then it’s tough. Watch out for my predictions for Kevin Hogan and Mitchell Trubisky. I can’t say I’d play either this week, but Hogan did well last week and might just be new starter.]

Models D, E, and I are the most accurate this year, though I only has 1 data point. I’d trush D or E (similar results), but I’m going to keep an eye on I for the future.

Your top streaming options for the week are Flacco, Bortles, and Palmer, though I would also put McCown and Hoyer up there as options:

  • Flacco: hasn’t done anything good this year, but he’s historically been productive and the Bears are in the middle of the pack for points to QBs
  • Bortles is always a dart throw. Same story as Flacco: OK historically against a mid-level defense
  • Palmer: TB has been hit-or-miss this year, and Palmer is throwing a little more with David Johnson out for the season.
  • McCown: Up against NE who, until last week, gave up a ton of points to QBs. Is this a new NE or a fluke last week? Will McCown have to throw to keep up? Depending on how you feel about these questions, McCown may be a good streamer
  • Hoyer: two great games and three bad ones. They have a low predicted score for the week (18 points), so I’d stay away, but if you’re in a deep league you could do worse. You could have Eli.
  • Roethlisberger is a big question mark for me. He’ll be away against KC and was dreadful last week. I’d sit him if I had him, but it’s tough to sit him if you’re looking at any of those guys I listed above. Eli is up against DEN and just lost 2-4 wide receivers last week. Stay away.

I really hope D, E, or I are correct since I have Stafford in this week. But he’s been giving me nothing all year and since we lose a point for sacks he’s lost 18 points on the year, and 6 each of the last 2 weeks against good defenses. Hopefully he’ll turn it around in what might be a shootout against NO. They also put this week’s opponent’s QB (Rodgers) at the lowest he’s been all year against the usually solid MIN defense. This is yet another week where I hope it turns out that I’m a better analyst than I think I am.

Week 6 QB Results

Week 6 DEF Predictions