Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 7 K Predictions

Model F is still almost better than randomly guessing. I have Will Lutz, paragon of consistency, but for the rest of you out there I’d take a look at model F. Let’s see the models:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017

Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Harrison ButkerHarrison ButkerHarrison ButkerWil LutzStephen GostkowskiHarrison ButkerDan Bailey
2Justin TuckerJake ElliottJake ElliottJake ElliottJake ElliottJake ElliottAndrew Franks
3Wil LutzWil LutzMatt BryantDan BaileyWil LutzWil LutzHarrison Butker
4Jake ElliottStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiDan BaileyStephen GostkowskiSteven Hauschka
5Stephen GostkowskiDan BaileyWil LutzHarrison ButkerRyan SuccopDan BaileyChris Boswell
6Blair WalshGraham GanoJustin TuckerGraham GanoPhil DawsonGraham GanoRandy Bullock
7Steven HauschkaSteven HauschkaGraham GanoJason MyersMatt BryantSteven HauschkaKai Forbath
8Matt BryantMatt BryantSteven HauschkaSteven HauschkaHarrison ButkerMatt BryantYounghoe Koo
9Adam VinatieriJason MyersDustin HopkinsRyan SuccopSteven HauschkaJustin TuckerAldrick Rosas
10Jason MyersJustin TuckerAdam VinatieriBlair WalshJason MyersJason MyersJake Elliott
11Dan BaileyBlair WalshBrandon McManusPhil DawsonChris BoswellRyan SuccopBlair Walsh
12Graham GanoPhil DawsonDan BaileyMatt BryantKai ForbathBlair WalshGreg Zuerlein
13Brandon McManusRyan SuccopRobbie GouldChris BoswellGraham GanoKai ForbathJustin Tucker
14Greg ZuerleinAdam VinatieriChris BoswellKai ForbathBlair WalshPhil DawsonAdam Vinatieri
15Chris BoswellChris BoswellBlair WalshJustin TuckerGiorgio TavecchioChris BoswellPatrick Murray
16Robbie GouldKai ForbathChandler CatanzaroAdam VinatieriGreg ZuerleinGreg ZuerleinJason Myers
17Kai ForbathGreg ZuerleinJason MyersGreg ZuerleinYounghoe KooGiorgio TavecchioStephen Gostkowski
18Phil DawsonBrandon McManusMason CrosbyBrandon McManusDustin HopkinsRobbie GouldGraham Gano
19Dustin HopkinsRobbie GouldGiorgio TavecchioDustin HopkinsMason CrosbyDustin HopkinsChandler Catanzaro
20Giorgio TavecchioDustin HopkinsKai ForbathRobbie GouldAndrew FranksBrandon McManusGiorgio Tavecchio
21Mason CrosbyGiorgio TavecchioGreg ZuerleinGiorgio TavecchioZane GonzalezMason CrosbyZane Gonzalez
22Younghoe KooChandler CatanzaroRandy BullockYounghoe KooAdam VinatieriConnor BarthMason Crosby
23Ryan SuccopConnor BarthRyan SuccopConnor BarthRobbie GouldChandler CatanzaroDustin Hopkins
24Connor BarthMason CrosbyConnor BarthMason CrosbyPatrick MurrayAdam VinatieriBrandon McManus
25Chandler CatanzaroRandy BullockPhil DawsonChandler CatanzaroBrandon McManusRandy BullockPhil Dawson
26Randy BullockAndrew FranksAldrick RosasAndrew FranksConnor BarthYounghoe KooRyan Succop
27Andrew FranksYounghoe KooAndrew FranksRandy BullockRandy BullockAldrick RosasMatt Bryant
28Aldrick RosasAldrick RosasYounghoe KooPatrick MurrayChandler CatanzaroAndrew FranksRobbie Gould
29Zane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezJustin TuckerZane GonzalezWil Lutz
30Patrick MurrayPatrick MurrayPatrick MurrayAldrick RosasAldrick RosasPatrick MurrayConnor Barth



Conclusions


Okay, I’m somehow even more depressed than ever that Model F is the only one worth using. Model F assumes that kickers who have done well in the past will do well again in the future and there’s nothing else you need to predict performance. There’s no need to look at matchups or predicted scores. Just tell me who did well last week. He’ll probably do it again.

And it’s the best model I have.

Shit. I really hate kickers. I’m going to have to work on new models now, aren’t I? Maybe one where I model the predicted yards? I don’t know, but I can’t just let this stand.

Week 7 DEF Predictions

Week 6 K Results