Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 7 QB Predictions

I might be done with Matt Stafford.

So far this year I’ve used him every week, and so far he’s done very little (remember that we lose a point for sacks, and he’s getting beat like a drum out there). Here is a list of guys I could have picked up for one week who would have gotten me more points: Fitzpatrick, McCown, Keenum, Brissett. Hell, the guy who REPLACED Hoyer would have only gotten me 1 point less. So I might be streaming again despite the dummies in my league holding 22 QBs between the 12 of us (and now I’m a part of that, with 2 QBs on my roster. I feel so dirty!). I have Goff for this week because I like him more than my models show, but we’ll see what I do after that.

I’ll probably use Model I since it’s the best so far, but B, D, and E are all up there, too. Let’s see them all:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017
GPLSXXXXX X2017
HLMXXX X X2015-2017
IMany LMsXXXXXX 2015-2017
JMany LMsXXXXXX 2016-2017*

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png


Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary
 

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Tom BradyBen RoethlisbergerTom BradyTom BradyAaron RodgersTom BradyTom BradyDak PrescottAaron RodgersMatt Ryan
2Ben RoethlisbergerTom BradyDrew BreesAaron RodgersTom BradyDrew BreesCarson WentzMarcus MariotaBen RoethlisbergerBen Roethlisberger
3Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersDak PrescottDrew BreesBen RoethlisbergerAaron RodgersDrew BreesMatt RyanMatt RyanMarcus Mariota
4Marcus MariotaMatt RyanAaron RodgersMatt RyanMatt RyanDak PrescottDak PrescottRussell WilsonTom BradyAaron Rodgers
5Drew BreesMarcus MariotaKirk CousinsMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaKirk CousinsMarcus MariotaCarson WentzDrew BreesDak Prescott
6Cam NewtonDrew BreesCam NewtonDak PrescottDrew BreesCam NewtonMatt RyanTom BradyMarcus MariotaTom Brady
7Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsMarcus MariotaKirk CousinsKirk CousinsBen RoethlisbergerCarson PalmerKirk CousinsDak PrescottAlex Smith
8Matt RyanDak PrescottBlake BortlesRussell WilsonRussell WilsonMarcus MariotaAlex SmithJay CutlerBlake BortlesDrew Brees
9Blake BortlesRussell WilsonMatt RyanBen RoethlisbergerTyrod TaylorMatt RyanTyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorKirk CousinsKirk Cousins
10Russell WilsonCarson WentzRussell WilsonAlex SmithCam NewtonCarson PalmerBlake BortlesAlex SmithRussell WilsonBlake Bortles
11Carson WentzTyrod TaylorBen RoethlisbergerCam NewtonJameis WinstonRussell WilsonBen RoethlisbergerCase KeenumCarson WentzCase Keenum
12Dak PrescottBlake BortlesCarson PalmerTyrod TaylorCarson WentzBlake BortlesCase KeenumBen RoethlisbergerJameis WinstonTyrod Taylor
13Tyrod TaylorCam NewtonTyrod TaylorJameis WinstonBlake BortlesTyrod TaylorE.J. ManuelCam NewtonCam NewtonCarson Wentz
14Carson PalmerJameis WinstonPhilip RiversBlake BortlesDak PrescottCarson WentzCam NewtonEli ManningTyrod TaylorCarson Palmer
15Andy DaltonAndy DaltonCarson WentzCarson PalmerAlex SmithPhilip RiversJared GoffPhilip RiversAndy DaltonRussell Wilson
16Jameis WinstonCarson PalmerJameis WinstonCarson WentzCarson PalmerJameis WinstonRussell WilsonAaron RodgersCarson PalmerC.J. Beathard
17Philip RiversCase KeenumAlex SmithPhilip RiversAndy DaltonAlex SmithPhilip RiversKevin HoganAlex SmithEli Manning
18Alex SmithAlex SmithAndy DaltonAndy DaltonPhilip RiversAndy DaltonKirk CousinsE.J. ManuelCase KeenumAndy Dalton
19Eli ManningEli ManningEli ManningEli ManningEli ManningEli ManningAaron RodgersJosh McCownEli ManningJameis Winston
20Case KeenumPhilip RiversCase KeenumCase KeenumCase KeenumCase KeenumKevin HoganCarson PalmerPhilip RiversCam Newton
21Jacoby BrissettJosh McCownJay CutlerJay CutlerKevin HoganJay CutlerC.J. BeathardJared GoffJosh McCownJared Goff
22Jay CutlerJay CutlerTrevor SiemianJosh McCownC.J. BeathardTrevor SiemianJay CutlerDrew BreesJay CutlerPhilip Rivers
23Trevor SiemianJoe FlaccoJoe FlaccoKevin HoganJosh McCownJared GoffJacoby BrissettTrevor SiemianJared GoffMitchell Trubisky
24Josh McCownKevin HoganJosh McCownJoe FlaccoJay CutlerJacoby BrissettJameis WinstonJameis WinstonJoe FlaccoTrevor Siemian
25Mitchell TrubiskyTrevor SiemianJacoby BrissettTrevor SiemianTrevor SiemianJoe FlaccoTrevor SiemianC.J. BeathardMitchell TrubiskyJay Cutler
26Joe FlaccoMitchell TrubiskyC.J. BeathardC.J. BeathardJacoby BrissettJosh McCownMitchell TrubiskyAndy DaltonTrevor SiemianJosh McCown
27Jared GoffJared GoffJared GoffJared GoffJoe FlaccoKevin HoganAndy DaltonMitchell TrubiskyKevin HoganKevin Hogan
28C.J. BeathardJacoby BrissettKevin HoganJacoby BrissettJared GoffC.J. BeathardJosh McCownJoe FlaccoJacoby BrissettJoe Flacco
29Kevin HoganC.J. BeathardMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyJoe FlaccoBlake BortlesC.J. BeathardJacoby Brissett
30E.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelEli ManningJacoby BrissettE.J. ManuelE.J. Manuel

Conclusions

[NOTES: Hoyer might be out and Beathard in. Be careful of using him. Modeling rookies is tough, modeling guys with 1 game is tougher.]

Models B, D, E, and I are the most accurate this year. I’m still more apt to trust D or E since I has limited data, but I’m not entirely opposed to using it.

As always, the top guys will be taken, but here are some of the top fliers for the week:

  • Bortles, the garbage time king, has had 4 OK games, 1 great game, and 1 terrible one. He’s up against Indy this week who have given up a lot of points to QBs. Defenitely a desperation play, but you might get lucky.
  • Palmer: Consistently OK this year, going against the Rams (also OK). I’d predict he ends up just above the middle of the pack, but that’s not a bad place to be if you’re streaming
  • Taylor: The Bucs give up a lot of points to QBs, but he just doesn’t throw it much. But he also makes few mistakes and runs a lot. I think you can do better, though.
  • Keenum: 2 bad games, 2 ok, 1 good. Baltimore doesn’t give up a lot of yards, but Keenum also doesn’t make any mistakes (1 INT and 4 sacks over 5 games). Baltimore also looks artifically good this year since they’ve gone up against Hogan, Kizer, Manuel, and Trubisky. They crushed Dalton week 1, but he hadn’t hit his stride yet. Roesthlisberer played them in a blowout so he didn’t have to throw, and Bortles… also played them in a blowout but thre 4 TDs. He’s up there with McCown for me: a guy who will get 1 or 2 TDs and enough yards to put him in the middle of the group for the week.

Roethlisberger is again toward the top of the lists. Last week he was nothing special. In fact, you could say that about him all year. I really wouldn’t want to play him against Cincinnati.  Nor would I want to be the manager of the fantasy team that has him. Because I’m certain to lose this week regardless of whether I play Roethlisberger.

Like I said, I like Goff more than my models do, so I’m going to go with him, but depending on my confidence this week I might call my shot and put in Keenum. We’ll see how the rest of my team looks and how badly I want to embarrass my opponent.

Week 7 QB Results

Week 7 DEF Predictions