Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 8 K Predictions

Model F is getting so close to being better than randomly guessing. It just says that good kickers will continue to do well, so if Butker, Lutz, or Succop are available, go get them. Let’s see the models for this week:

Model Type Player Score OppScore Score2 OppScore2 Opp HomeTeam DataYears
D LM X X X X X 2015-2017
E LM X X X X X 2015-2017
F LM X 2015-2017
G Gibbs Sampler X X X X X 2015-2017
H LM X 2015-2017
I PLS X X X X X X X 2015-2017


Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Partial Least Squares

 

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

Rank D E F G H I Random
1 Harrison Butker Harrison Butker Harrison Butker Jake Elliott Jake Elliott Harrison Butker Connor Barth
2 Jake Elliott Jake Elliott Jake Elliott Wil Lutz Wil Lutz Jake Elliott Steven Hauschka
3 Stephen Gostkowski Wil Lutz Stephen Gostkowski Harrison Butker Stephen Gostkowski Wil Lutz Ka'imi Fairbairn
4 Wil Lutz Justin Tucker Matt Bryant Stephen Gostkowski Randy Bullock Justin Tucker Giorgio Tavecchio
5 Steven Hauschka Stephen Gostkowski Justin Tucker Justin Tucker Matt Bryant Stephen Gostkowski Graham Gano
6 Randy Bullock Matt Bryant Wil Lutz Matt Bryant Blair Walsh Matt Bryant Blair Walsh
7 Matt Bryant Kai Forbath Graham Gano Kai Forbath Harrison Butker Kai Forbath Patrick Murray
8 Chris Boswell Steven Hauschka Steven Hauschka Blair Walsh Steven Hauschka Steven Hauschka Randy Bullock
9 Justin Tucker Blair Walsh Dustin Hopkins Steven Hauschka Chris Boswell Blair Walsh Adam Vinatieri
10 Dustin Hopkins Chris Boswell Chris Boswell Randy Bullock Kai Forbath Chris Boswell Brandon McManus
11 Giorgio Tavecchio Graham Gano Adam Vinatieri Chris Boswell Patrick Murray Graham Gano Younghoe Koo
12 Matt Prater Dan Bailey Brandon McManus Dan Bailey Dan Bailey Randy Bullock Zane Gonzalez
13 Adam Vinatieri Matt Prater Matt Prater Graham Gano Giorgio Tavecchio Dan Bailey Justin Tucker
14 Robbie Gould Randy Bullock Ka'imi Fairbairn Matt Prater Chandler Catanzaro Matt Prater Matt Prater
15 Graham Gano Dustin Hopkins Dan Bailey Dustin Hopkins Matt Prater Dustin Hopkins Wil Lutz
16 Kai Forbath Giorgio Tavecchio Robbie Gould Patrick Murray Graham Gano Giorgio Tavecchio Chandler Catanzaro
17 Dan Bailey Ka'imi Fairbairn Blair Walsh Giorgio Tavecchio Younghoe Koo Ka'imi Fairbairn Stephen Gostkowski
18 Chandler Catanzaro Brandon McManus Kai Forbath Brandon McManus Justin Tucker Robbie Gould Kai Forbath
19 Blair Walsh Robbie Gould Chandler Catanzaro Chandler Catanzaro Dustin Hopkins Brandon McManus Harrison Butker
20 Connor Barth Adam Vinatieri Giorgio Tavecchio Ka'imi Fairbairn Ka'imi Fairbairn Chandler Catanzaro Dan Bailey
21 Brandon McManus Chandler Catanzaro Randy Bullock Robbie Gould Connor Barth Connor Barth Matt Bryant
22 Younghoe Koo Connor Barth Connor Barth Adam Vinatieri Brandon McManus Patrick Murray Chris Boswell
23 Zane Gonzalez Patrick Murray Andrew Franks Younghoe Koo Robbie Gould Adam Vinatieri Dustin Hopkins
24 Patrick Murray Andrew Franks Younghoe Koo Connor Barth Andrew Franks Younghoe Koo Robbie Gould
25 Ka'imi Fairbairn Younghoe Koo Patrick Murray Andrew Franks Adam Vinatieri Zane Gonzalez Andrew Franks
26 Andrew Franks Zane Gonzalez Zane Gonzalez Zane Gonzalez Zane Gonzalez Andrew Franks Jake Elliott



Conclusions


Butker, Elliott, Gostkowski. If any of these top guys from Model F are still available in your league, go get them. Hopkins, Boswell, and Gano are all potentially out there still. Or you can always just guess which, as we know, is a perfectly valid strategy for kickers.

Week 8 QB Predictions

Week 7 DEF Results