Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 9 K Predictions

Model F is still the way to go despite being the simplest model I have. I really hate that, but nothing more complex has been any better. I also just don’t care enough about kickers.

Let’s see the models for this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017


Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Harrison ButkerHarrison ButkerHarrison ButkerWil LutzKa'imi FairbairnHarrison ButkerGreg Zuerlein
2Jake ElliottJake ElliottJake ElliottHarrison ButkerWil LutzJake ElliottKa'imi Fairbairn
3Ka'imi FairbairnWil LutzMatt BryantKa'imi FairbairnBlair WalshWil LutzDustin Hopkins
4Justin TuckerKa'imi FairbairnJustin TuckerJake ElliottJake ElliottKa'imi FairbairnAdam Vinatieri
5Wil LutzBlair WalshWil LutzBlair WalshDan BaileyBlair WalshRandy Bullock
6Jason MyersMatt PraterGraham GanoMatt PraterHarrison ButkerMatt PraterBlair Walsh
7Steven HauschkaJustin TuckerSteven HauschkaGreg ZuerleinRyan SuccopJustin TuckerJason Myers
8Graham GanoGreg ZuerleinDustin HopkinsGraham GanoGiorgio TavecchioSteven HauschkaRyan Succop
9Matt BryantGraham GanoMatt PraterJason MyersSteven HauschkaGraham GanoJustin Tucker
10Greg ZuerleinSteven HauschkaAdam VinatieriSteven HauschkaGraham GanoGreg ZuerleinMatt Prater
11Ryan SuccopJason MyersBrandon McManusRyan SuccopGreg ZuerleinJason MyersPhil Dawson
12Dan BaileyDan BaileyBlair WalshJustin TuckerMatt PraterDan BaileyJake Elliott
13Robbie GouldRyan SuccopKa'imi FairbairnDan BaileyJason MyersRyan SuccopChandler Catanzaro
14Chandler CatanzaroMatt BryantDan BaileyMatt BryantPatrick MurrayMatt BryantAndrew Franks
15Matt PraterRobbie GouldRobbie GouldGiorgio TavecchioMatt BryantRobbie GouldAldrick Rosas
16Adam VinatieriGiorgio TavecchioChandler CatanzaroPhil DawsonPhil DawsonPhil DawsonWil Lutz
17Randy BullockPhil DawsonJason MyersRobbie GouldAndrew FranksGiorgio TavecchioRobbie Gould
18Blair WalshDustin HopkinsGreg ZuerleinDustin HopkinsMason CrosbyDustin HopkinsBrandon McManus
19Phil DawsonAdam VinatieriMason CrosbyChandler CatanzaroChandler CatanzaroBrandon McManusMason Crosby
20Brandon McManusBrandon McManusRyan SuccopBrandon McManusAldrick RosasChandler CatanzaroHarrison Butker
21Dustin HopkinsChandler CatanzaroRandy BullockMason CrosbyDustin HopkinsMason CrosbyPatrick Murray
22Giorgio TavecchioMason CrosbyGiorgio TavecchioAdam VinatieriJustin TuckerRandy BullockGiorgio Tavecchio
23Andrew FranksRandy BullockPhil DawsonAldrick RosasRobbie GouldAldrick RosasDan Bailey
24Mason CrosbyAldrick RosasAndrew FranksPatrick MurrayAdam VinatieriPatrick MurrayMatt Bryant
25Patrick MurrayAndrew FranksAldrick RosasRandy BullockBrandon McManusAdam VinatieriSteven Hauschka
26Aldrick RosasPatrick MurrayPatrick MurrayAndrew FranksRandy BullockAndrew FranksGraham Gano


Conclusions

Butker, Elliott, Gostkowski. If any of these top guys from Model F are still available in your league, go get them. Hopkins, Boswell, and Gano are all potentially out there still. Or you can always just guess which, as we know, is a perfectly valid strategy for kickers.

Week 9 QB Predictions

Week 8 K Results