Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 4 QB Results

Deshaun Watson! Wow! I didn’t really see that one coming! But some of my models did predict a bounce-back for Eli, and others for Dalton. So maybe there’s something to a few of these models after all.

Let’s see how each model did last week:

.accuracy graph-1.png
Modelestimatestd.error
ModelA0NA
ModelB-18.565833338.932834471
ModelC-17.025833338.932834471
ModelD-22.540833338.932834471
ModelE-20.090833338.932834471
ModelF-21.715833338.932834471
ModelG-4.65571428612.58535381
ModelH-5.79571428612.58535381
ModelYahoo-3.1108333338.932834471


Models B, D, and F were the best last week, with A and Yahoo bringing up the rear. CAVEAT: Yahoo’s experts are predicting QBs with standard scoring and if you’ll remember my league deducts 1 point per sack. It’s probably not fair to say I’m better than Yahoo, but it is fair to say that I’ll trust my models over their experts in my league.

The table above shows the average deviation from Model A, i.e., with negative scores meaning better accuracy. Models D, E, and F are the best, and Model A the worst. I’ll be taking a close look at those models this week, though it likely doesn’t matter since the dummies in my league are stashing all the QBs. It’s embarrassing.

Week 4 K Results

Week 4 DEF results