Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 5 K Predictions

Model H is better than randomly guessing, but not significantly so. Yahoo’s experts aren’t any better, though, so I guess that’s a consolation.

Last week my random guess would have been Barth, but I chose Succop instead, opting to go with consistency over guessing. Both got exactly 2 points, because nothing matters.

Let’s see my barely-better-than-guesses for the week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017


Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Jake ElliottJake ElliottJake ElliottStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiJake ElliottJustin Tucker
2Harrison ButkerKa'imi FairbairnHarrison ButkerJake ElliottDan BaileyKa'imi FairbairnAndrew Franks
3Dan BaileyHarrison ButkerKa'imi FairbairnDan BaileyChris BoswellStephen GostkowskiGraham Gano
4Ka'imi FairbairnStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiChris BoswellJake ElliottDan BaileySteven Hauschka
5Justin TuckerGiorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioMatt PraterMason CrosbyGiorgio TavecchioZane Gonzalez
6Stephen GostkowskiDan BaileyJustin TuckerGreg ZuerleinNick FolkGreg ZuerleinYounghoe Koo
7Robbie GouldJustin TuckerGraham GanoJustin TuckerGreg ZuerleinMatt PraterGiorgio Tavecchio
8Chris BoswellMatt PraterSteven HauschkaAdam VinatieriAldrick RosasJustin TuckerRandy Bullock
9Giorgio TavecchioGreg ZuerleinMatt PraterKa'imi FairbairnHarrison ButkerChris BoswellStephen Gostkowski
10Mason CrosbyChris BoswellDan BaileyNick FolkMatt PraterRobbie GouldPhil Dawson
11Matt PraterAdam VinatieriChris BoswellRobbie GouldBlair WalshNick FolkAdam Vinatieri
12Greg ZuerleinNick FolkChandler CatanzaroHarrison ButkerAdam VinatieriBlair WalshKai Forbath
13Steven HauschkaRobbie GouldRobbie GouldGiorgio TavecchioKa'imi FairbairnGraham GanoChris Boswell
14Adam VinatieriGraham GanoBlair WalshBlair WalshRyan SuccopKai ForbathMason Crosby
15Nick FolkBlair WalshJason MyersGraham GanoKai ForbathHarrison ButkerJason Myers
16Randy BullockKai ForbathAdam VinatieriKai ForbathRobbie GouldRandy BullockGreg Zuerlein
17Kai ForbathRyan SuccopMason CrosbyAldrick RosasRandy BullockSteven HauschkaChandler Catanzaro
18Connor BarthSteven HauschkaNick FolkRyan SuccopGiorgio TavecchioRyan SuccopRobbie Gould
19Graham GanoMason CrosbyGreg ZuerleinMason CrosbyYounghoe KooMason CrosbyDan Bailey
20Blair WalshRandy BullockRandy BullockRandy BullockGraham GanoChandler CatanzaroJake Elliott
21Phil DawsonJason MyersKai ForbathSteven HauschkaZane GonzalezJason MyersNick Folk
22Aldrick RosasChandler CatanzaroRyan SuccopChandler CatanzaroAndrew FranksPhil DawsonMatt Prater
23Ryan SuccopPhil DawsonConnor BarthConnor BarthConnor BarthConnor BarthHarrison Butker
24Younghoe KooConnor BarthPhil DawsonJason MyersPhil DawsonAdam VinatieriConnor Barth
25Jason MyersAldrick RosasAndrew FranksPhil DawsonChandler CatanzaroAldrick RosasRyan Succop
26Andrew FranksAndrew FranksAldrick RosasZane GonzalezJustin TuckerAndrew FranksBlair Walsh
27Chandler CatanzaroYounghoe KooYounghoe KooYounghoe KooSteven HauschkaYounghoe KooAldrick Rosas
28Zane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezAndrew FranksJason MyersZane GonzalezKa'imi Fairbairn


Conclusions


Model H picked a lot of guys that make sense to me: Gostkowski, Bailey, Boswell, Elliott, Crosby. These are guys on good offenses, probably scoring a lot of points. I guess go with them? But that list of random guys includes Tucker, Gano, and Hauschka, all of whom have been good this year. I guess one of them would be fine too? I don’t know, and I don’t know how to know. If I knew what info I needed to make better predictions I would beg, borrow, or steal for it.

But I don’t, so I continue to make these guesses into the void.

Just remember: everything you do is pointless, and every time you pick a new kicker you’re just wasting time that could be spent with loved ones. Get out there in the world and live! Don’t waste another second of your life on kickers.

[Let me waste that time for you.]

Week 5 DEF Predictions

Week 4 K Results