Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 5 QB Predictions

Last week was a big comeback week for Manning, Dalton, and Newton, as a HUGE week for Deshaun Watson. Alex Smith was way up there, too, the these were phenomenal scores from these guys. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers ended up in that top-12, with solid scores, but those top guys this week just blew them out of the water.

Consequently, my models did alright, but nothing special. I have no idea how you predict these blowout games, but if I figure it out, I’ll let you know.

Model D is the best of the bunch so far this year, with E and F nipping at its heels. Let’s see what it says this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017
GPLSXXXXX X2017
HMany LMsXXXXXX 2015-2017
IMany LMsXXXXXX 2016-2017*

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png


Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Tom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyJameis Winston
2Ben RoethlisbergerJameis WinstonAaron RodgersAaron RodgersAaron RodgersAaron RodgersDak PrescottJameis WinstonJameis WinstonAaron Rodgers
3Dak PrescottDak PrescottDak PrescottJameis WinstonDak PrescottDak PrescottAaron RodgersAaron RodgersBen RoethlisbergerTom Brady
4Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersJameis WinstonDak PrescottJameis WinstonBen RoethlisbergerJameis WinstonEli ManningAaron RodgersDak Prescott
5Russell WilsonBen RoethlisbergerRussell WilsonCam NewtonBen RoethlisbergerRussell WilsonCarson WentzMarcus MariotaDak PrescottMarcus Mariota
6Jameis WinstonMarcus MariotaBen RoethlisbergerRussell WilsonCam NewtonJameis WinstonBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottDeshaun WatsonBen Roethlisberger
7Eli ManningCam NewtonCam NewtonMarcus MariotaEli ManningEli ManningJared GoffDeShone KizerCam NewtonRussell Wilson
8Matthew StaffordRussell WilsonEli ManningEli ManningPhilip RiversCam NewtonAlex SmithPhilip RiversPhilip RiversMatthew Stafford
9Cam NewtonPhilip RiversMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversRussell WilsonMatthew StaffordEli ManningJay CutlerMatthew StaffordDeshaun Watson
10Marcus MariotaBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaRussell WilsonJosh McCownRussell WilsonEli Manning
11Philip RiversMatthew StaffordBlake BortlesMatthew StaffordMatthew StaffordAndy DaltonDeshaun WatsonCarson PalmerMarcus MariotaAlex Smith
12Blake BortlesEli ManningPhilip RiversAndy DaltonBlake BortlesPhilip RiversMatthew StaffordAndy DaltonBlake BortlesCam Newton
13Carson WentzDeshaun WatsonAndy DaltonBen RoethlisbergerAndy DaltonBlake BortlesJacoby BrissettMatthew StaffordEli ManningBlake Bortles
14Brian HoyerJosh McCownDeshaun WatsonTyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorAlex SmithMarcus MariotaCase KeenumBrian HoyerCarson Wentz
15Deshaun WatsonCarson WentzAlex SmithCarson PalmerCarson PalmerCarson WentzCase KeenumAlex SmithAlex SmithBrian Hoyer
16Tyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorCarson WentzJoe FlaccoBrian HoyerCarson PalmerBrian HoyerRussell WilsonTyrod TaylorPhilip Rivers
17Andy DaltonBrian HoyerCarson PalmerAlex SmithCarson WentzCase KeenumAndy DaltonCarson WentzCarson WentzDeShone Kizer
18Carson PalmerCarson PalmerTyrod TaylorJay CutlerJosh McCownDeshaun WatsonPhilip RiversJoe FlaccoJosh McCownTyrod Taylor
19Alex SmithJay CutlerBrian HoyerDeshaun WatsonJay CutlerBrian HoyerCam NewtonTyrod TaylorCarson PalmerJay Cutler
20Case KeenumAndy DaltonCase KeenumCarson WentzDeshaun WatsonTyrod TaylorE.J. ManuelJacoby BrissettAndy DaltonJacoby Brissett
21Josh McCownAlex SmithJoe FlaccoJosh McCownCase KeenumJoe FlaccoDeShone KizerDeshaun WatsonJay CutlerJoe Flacco
22Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJay CutlerBrian HoyerAlex SmithJay CutlerJay CutlerBrian HoyerJacoby BrissettAndy Dalton
23Jay CutlerCase KeenumDeShone KizerCase KeenumJoe FlaccoJosh McCownMike GlennonMike GlennonDeShone KizerCarson Palmer
24DeShone KizerJoe FlaccoJosh McCownDeShone KizerJacoby BrissettJared GoffCarson PalmerCam NewtonCase KeenumJared Goff
25Joe FlaccoDeShone KizerJared GoffJared GoffJared GoffJacoby BrissettJosh McCownE.J. ManuelJoe FlaccoCase Keenum
26Jared GoffJared GoffJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettDeShone KizerDeShone KizerJoe FlaccoBen RoethlisbergerJared GoffJosh McCown
27Mike GlennonMike GlennonMike GlennonMike GlennonMike GlennonMike GlennonTyrod TaylorBlake BortlesMike GlennonMike Glennon
28E.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelE.J. ManuelBlake BortlesJared GoffE.J. ManuelE.J. Manuel

Conclusions

[NOTES: ignore E.J. Manuel and Mike Glennon this week. Manuel doesn’t really have enough data as a starter to model him properly, and Glennon is being replaced with Trubisky who has no data at all yet. I also created 2 new models, I and J. I know it’s getting ridiulous, but I want this to work.]

Model D has Brady, Rodgers, and Winston at the top (as expected), followed by Prescott, Newton, Wilson, and Mariota. Then the rest of them. Just a big ol’ group behind that top list from Manning to Hoyer. That’s probably the group you’re looking at if you’re streaming.

Bortles is an interesting choice this week. He’s up against Pittsburgh’s amazing pass defense, but he’s also done better this year against stronger defenses (BAL) than weaker ones (TEN). This is likely because Blake Bortles lives in garbage time. Expect a LOT of garbage time this week, making him a sneaky play.

One of Cutler, Taylor, Flacco, or Palmer are likely available to stream in your league, and have OK matchups.

On a personal note, this entire exercise is academic for me, since the dummies in my league are all stashing 2 or 3 QBs each (with the exception of myself and the guys who have Rodgers and Brady). At the time of writing, 21 QBs are taken (in a 12 team league). Scandalous.

As a final note, if you happen to be choosing between, say, Taylor or Palmer this week, I wouldn’t really worry about it. Whichever you choose will be the wrong choice, and you will lose miserably to your brother. The models don’t show this; this is an undeniable fact.

You. Will. Lose.

Week 5 K Results

Week 5 DEF Predictions