Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 11 K Predictions

I’m definitely just going through the motions with kickers so I have the data to work on the models later. Use Model F, get a guy with a good name who has done well in the past, and just cross your fingers.

Let’s see the models for this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017

Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview
 

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Harrison ButkerHarrison ButkerHarrison ButkerHarrison ButkerWil LutzHarrison ButkerCody Parkey
2Jake ElliottStephen GostkowskiJake ElliottStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiJake ElliottMike Nugent
3Stephen GostkowskiWil LutzStephen GostkowskiWil LutzHarrison ButkerWil LutzJake Elliott
4Justin TuckerJake ElliottJustin TuckerJustin TuckerChris BoswellStephen GostkowskiBlair Walsh
5Chris BoswellJustin TuckerWil LutzBlair WalshJake ElliottJustin TuckerAldrick Rosas
6Wil LutzBlair WalshMatt BryantChris BoswellKai ForbathChris BoswellMatt Bryant
7Nick RoseChris BoswellStephen HauschkaNick NovakBlair WalshBlair WalshRyan Succop
8Nick NovakNick NovakChris BoswellJake ElliottNick NovakNick RoseWil Lutz
9Phil DawsonPhil DawsonMatt PraterPhil DawsonPhil DawsonKai ForbathMason Crosby
10Blair WalshKai ForbathMason CrosbyMatt PraterGiorgio TavecchioNick NovakJosh Lambo
11Matt PraterMatt PraterBlair WalshKai ForbathMatt PraterJosh LamboNick Novak
12Kai ForbathMatt BryantNick NovakMatt BryantMike NugentMatt PraterKai Forbath
13Greg ZuerleinJosh LamboNick RoseJosh LamboJosh LamboPhil DawsonGreg Zuerlein
14Brandon McManusGreg ZuerleinBrandon McManusGreg ZuerleinKa'imi FairbairnMatt BryantRandy Bullock
15Mike NugentCody ParkeyMike NugentCody ParkeyGreg ZuerleinCody ParkeyZane Gonzalez
16Matt BryantBrandon McManusKai ForbathBrandon McManusCody ParkeyGreg ZuerleinHarrison Butker
17Josh LamboNick RoseGreg ZuerleinStephen HauschkaNick RoseGiorgio TavecchioBrandon McManus
18Stephen HauschkaStephen HauschkaJosh LamboConnor BarthBrandon McManusBrandon McManusJustin Tucker
19Cody ParkeyConnor BarthConnor BarthMike NugentMatt BryantStephen HauschkaKa'imi Fairbairn
20Mason CrosbyGiorgio TavecchioCody ParkeyRandy BullockJustin TuckerConnor BarthStephen Hauschka
21Randy BullockMike NugentRandy BullockGiorgio TavecchioConnor BarthKa'imi FairbairnStephen Gostkowski
22Giorgio TavecchioRandy BullockGiorgio TavecchioMason CrosbyStephen HauschkaMike NugentMatt Prater
23Connor BarthPatrick MurrayPhil DawsonKa'imi FairbairnPatrick MurrayRandy BullockNick Rose
24Ka'imi FairbairnMason CrosbyRyan SuccopPatrick MurrayRandy BullockMason CrosbyPatrick Murray
25Patrick MurrayRyan SuccopKa'imi FairbairnNick RoseRyan SuccopRyan SuccopPhil Dawson
26Ryan SuccopKa'imi FairbairnPatrick MurrayRyan SuccopMason CrosbyPatrick MurrayConnor Barth
27Aldrick RosasAldrick RosasAldrick RosasAldrick RosasAldrick RosasAldrick RosasGiorgio Tavecchio
28Zane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezChris Boswell

Conclusions


Are any of the usual suspects available in your league? Go get them. Nick Rose had an OK week and is in the middle of the pack for Model F. Go get him. Who cares? If you don’t have any of those top 6 it’s a crap shoot. In fact, even if you do it’s pretty random, but maybe with a slightly higher ceiling.

Week 11 QB Predictions

Week 11 DEF Predictions