Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 11 QB Predictions

Most of my top picks last week did well (Goff, Stafford, Beathard) with the notable exception of Tyrod Taylor. I have Goff, but I’m always looking to stream (plus, you know, MIN).

Let’s see who my models think I should go with this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017
GPLSXXXXX X2017
HLMXXX X X2017
IMany LMsXXXXXX 2015-2017
JMany LMsXXXXXX 2016-2017*

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary
 

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Drew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesTom BradyDerek CarrDrew BreesTom Brady
2Dak PrescottDak PrescottTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyDrew BreesTom BradyTom BradyBen Roethlisberger
3Tom BradyTom BradyRussell WilsonDerek CarrDerek CarrRussell WilsonAlex SmithRussell WilsonBen RoethlisbergerDerek Carr
4Ben RoethlisbergerDerek CarrDak PrescottRussell WilsonBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottCarson WentzDrew StantonDak PrescottDrew Brees
5Derek CarrBen RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottBen RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerAlex SmithDerek CarrDak Prescott
6Russell WilsonRussell WilsonMatthew StaffordDak PrescottRussell WilsonMatthew StaffordCase KeenumDak PrescottRussell WilsonAlex Smith
7Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsDerek CarrCarson WentzKirk CousinsDerek CarrRussell WilsonBen RoethlisbergerKirk CousinsBlake Bortles
8Matthew StaffordCarson WentzKirk CousinsKirk CousinsCarson WentzPhilip RiversDerek CarrJay CutlerMatt RyanRussell Wilson
9Matt RyanMatt RyanPhilip RiversMatthew StaffordMatt RyanKirk CousinsDrew StantonDrew BreesBlake BortlesKirk Cousins
10Philip RiversBlake BortlesCarson WentzBlake BortlesBlake BortlesCarson WentzPhilip RiversBlake BortlesCarson WentzCarson Wentz
11Blake BortlesMarcus MariotaMatt RyanAlex SmithMatthew StaffordMatt RyanDak PrescottKirk CousinsMatthew StaffordEli Manning
12Carson WentzMatthew StaffordBlake BortlesMatt RyanMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversPhilip RiversMatt Ryan
13Marcus MariotaPhilip RiversAlex SmithPhilip RiversPhilip RiversAlex SmithTom SavageCarson WentzMarcus MariotaCase Keenum
14Andy DaltonJay CutlerMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaEli ManningCase KeenumKirk CousinsEli ManningAlex SmithPhilip Rivers
15Case KeenumAlex SmithCase KeenumEli ManningAlex SmithMarcus MariotaJared GoffJared GoffEli ManningMarcus Mariota
16Alex SmithEli ManningAndy DaltonRyan FitzpatrickJay CutlerAndy DaltonBlake BortlesTom SavageJay CutlerRyan Fitzpatrick
17Jay CutlerRyan FitzpatrickEli ManningJoe FlaccoAndy DaltonEli ManningJay CutlerMarcus MariotaJared GoffJay Cutler
18Eli ManningAndy DaltonRyan FitzpatrickJay CutlerRyan FitzpatrickJared GoffMatt RyanMatt RyanAndy DaltonMatthew Stafford
19Ryan FitzpatrickCase KeenumJay CutlerAndy DaltonCase KeenumRyan FitzpatrickBrock OsweilerRyan FitzpatrickRyan FitzpatrickJared Goff
20Jared GoffJared GoffJoe FlaccoCase KeenumTyrod TaylorJay CutlerJoe FlaccoCase KeenumCase KeenumAndy Dalton
21Tyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorJared GoffTyrod TaylorJoe FlaccoJoe FlaccoTyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorJoe FlaccoBrock Osweiler
22Joe FlaccoJoe FlaccoTyrod TaylorJared GoffJared GoffTyrod TaylorMitchell TrubiskyAndy DaltonTyrod TaylorJoe Flacco
23Mitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyDeShone KizerMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyDeShone KizerRyan FitzpatrickMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyMitchell Trubisky
24DeShone KizerDrew StantonMitchell TrubiskyDeShone KizerDrew StantonMitchell TrubiskyAndy DaltonJoe FlaccoDrew StantonTyrod Taylor
25Drew StantonDeShone KizerBrock OsweilerDrew StantonTom SavageDrew StantonMarcus MariotaMatthew StaffordDeShone KizerTom Savage
26Brock OsweilerBrock OsweilerDrew StantonBrock OsweilerDeShone KizerBrock OsweilerBrett HundleyBrett HundleyTom SavageDrew Stanton
27Tom SavageTom SavageTom SavageTom SavageBrock OsweilerTom SavageEli ManningDeShone KizerBrock OsweilerDeShone Kizer
28Brett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyDeShone KizerBrock OsweilerBrett HundleyBrett Hundley

Conclusions

Model H is still the best model I have, followed by D and E, so let’s see who it likes…

I. Am. Not. Playing. Drew. Stanton.

Dammit, Model H! Really? Drew Stanton? But he’s terrible. Well, not terrible, just, mediocre. And going up against the defense that give up the 3rd most points to QBs in my league, HOU. Okay, I see why you like him, but I’m not that confident.

Let’s see some other streaming options:

  • Jay Cutler (v. TB): TB gives up a lot of points, and he’s always willing to throw it.
  • Blake Bortles (at CLE): CLE gives it up to QBs, and Bortles has had very few terrible games this year, aided in large part by his excellent defense and running backs. With a couple of WR weapons as well he’s a pretty good play.
  • Eli Manning (v. KC): KC gives up points to QBs, he has Sterling Shepard back, and he’ll probably have to throw to keep up. An OK streaming option this week
  • Jared Goff (at MIN): this is a terrible matchup but he’s on fire and I just love this guy, so I want him to do well. Jump into the flames with me!

CAUTION:

  •  Case Keenum (v LAR): Sure, he’s on fire as well, but the Rams have been giving up very little this year. So why don’t I like him, but I like Goff? Shut up, that’s why.
  • Jared Goff (at MIN): Dammit. Fine. Watch out for him as well.

Ugh, I hated that. I don’t think I actually have the guts to play Cutler over Goff, but Models D, E and H all put him there. Alright, alright, I have the bench space and he has OK playoff matchups, so I can afford to stash Goff for a week.

Week 12 K Results

Week 11 K Predictions