Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 13 DEF Predictions

My model F has finally overtaken Yahoo, my personal defense choices have been doing great, and I’m officially in my fantasy playoffs. I’m doing great and hopefully you are, too. If you’re still streaming (and you totally should be), here are some defense predictions for this week:

ModelTypeScoreOppScoreOppHomeAwayDataYearsPointSystem
ALMXXXX2017IOUH/Standard
CLMXXXX2015-2017IOUH/Standard
FLMXXXX2015-2017TruScor
GGibbs SamplerXXXX2015-2017TruScor
HLMXXXX2017TruScor
IMany LMsXXXX2015-2017IOUH/Standard

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png


Model A parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model A Notes:

Uses only data from 2017
Standard points
Did well in 2016, but didn’t stand out

Model C:

.Model C-1.png


Model C parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model C Notes:

Uses data from 2015-2017
Standard scoring
Did well in 2016, but didn’t stand out

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Model F parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model F Notes:

Uses data from 2015-2017
Truscor ignores defense TDs but weights interceptions and fumbles to try to account for it
I really liked this one in 2016. It was marginally better than A and C

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Model G parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model G Notes:

Uses data from 2015-2017
Truscor ignores defense TDs but weights interceptions and fumbles to try to account for it
Uses Bayesian statistics (Gibbs sampler) to create a model
Would have done very well in 2016 based on simulation

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Model H parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model H Notes:

Uses only data from 2017
Uses TruScor points to reduce the effect of TDs

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Model I parameters may include:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model I Notes:

Data from 2015-2017
This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above.

Week 13 model summary:
 

RankACFGHI
1JACLACLACLACLACLAC
2BALLARLARLARJACJAC
3LACJACJACJACBALLAR
4DETKCPHITENTENKC
5MIAPHIKCPHIPITPHI
6DENDENPITMIAMIADEN
7CHIMIATENPITCHITEN
8LARTENDENKCLARMIA
9TENPITMIAOAKDENBAL
10KCTBTBDENTBPIT
11TBBALNOBALDETTB
12DALNOBALNOPHINO
13PITCHIOAKCHIKCCHI
14NODETCHITBWASDET
15WASHOUGBGBGBOAK
16PHIWASNENENEWAS
17SEANEWASWASNONE
18NEOAKDETSFDALHOU
19INDSFCARDETSEAGB
20GBCARSFDALINDMIN
21SFMINHOUCARSFSF
22HOUINDINDATLARIDAL
23CARGBMINNYJHOUIND
24NYGARIARIHOUNYJCAR
25ARIDALNYJARICARATL
26BUFSEADALINDNYGSEA
27CINNYGSEASEAOAKNYJ
28NYJATLATLCINBUFNYG
29OAKCLENYGMINCINARI
30ATLNYJCINNYGATLCIN
31CLECINCLECLEMINCLE
32MINBUFBUFBUFCLEBUF

Conclusions

Most of my predicted top defenses are owned this week since they’re just all-around good defenses, but let’s see if we can’t pick out some streamers in the middle of Model F’s list:

  • MIA (v. DEN): A low scoring game, potentially against Matt Moore, means good fantasy production from Miami this week. Even if it’s Cutler he isn’t exactly known for ball security and usually tosses a pick or two.
  • NO (v. CAR): Cam Newton has been really good this year, but so has New Orleans’ defense. I wouldn’t be afraid to fire them up this week if I had to.
  • OAK (v. NYG): Just go ahead and play and defense against the Giants, even mediocre ones.

CAUTION:

  • TB (at GB): TB has been great against bad offenses and terrible against good ones. I’d put GB at the lower end, but I don’t think quite low enough for TB to clear that bar. I’d avoid them this week, even against Brett Hundley.

Good luck to those of you still trying for that fantasy playoff spot.

Week 13 QB Predictions

Week 13 K Predictions