Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 13 QB Predictions

I missed a few weeks in there with holidays and just generally bing busy. Playoffs are rapidly approaching, so for those of you still vying for a spot, here are some QB streamers for week 13.

Let’s see who my models think I should go with this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017
GPLSXXXXX X2017
HLMXXX X X2017
IMany LMsXXXXXX 2015-2017
JMany LMsXXXXXX 2016-2017*

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

 

Weekly model summary
  

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Drew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesCam NewtonDrew BreesDrew BreesTom BradyPhilip RiversDrew BreesTom Brady
2Tom BradyCam NewtonCam NewtonDrew BreesCam NewtonCam NewtonPhilip RiversRussell WilsonCam NewtonKirk Cousins
3Cam NewtonDak PrescottTom BradyPhilip RiversTom BradyTom BradyCarson WentzTyrod TaylorTom BradyDrew Brees
4Dak PrescottTom BradyPhilip RiversTom BradyPhilip RiversRussell WilsonDrew BreesBen RoethlisbergerMarcus MariotaRussell Wilson
5Derek CarrPhilip RiversRussell WilsonRussell WilsonDak PrescottMatt RyanJared GoffJared GoffPhilip RiversBlake Bortles
6Philip RiversDerek CarrMatt RyanMatt RyanDerek CarrBen RoethlisbergerMatt RyanMarcus MariotaDak PrescottTyrod Taylor
7Blake BortlesKirk CousinsBen RoethlisbergerMarcus MariotaKirk CousinsPhilip RiversBlake BortlesCam NewtonRussell WilsonPhilip Rivers
8Matt RyanMatt RyanBlake BortlesBen RoethlisbergerMatt RyanBlake BortlesBen RoethlisbergerCase KeenumDerek CarrMarcus Mariota
9Russell WilsonBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaDerek CarrKirk CousinsMatt RyanAlex Smith
10Marcus MariotaRussell WilsonDerek CarrKirk CousinsBlake BortlesCarson WentzMarcus MariotaAlex SmithKirk CousinsDerek Carr
11Kirk CousinsMarcus MariotaDak PrescottDerek CarrRussell WilsonDerek CarrAlex SmithTom BradyBlake BortlesDak Prescott
12Carson WentzTyrod TaylorCarson WentzTyrod TaylorJoe FlaccoDak PrescottDak PrescottDrew BreesTyrod TaylorJosh McCown
13Ben RoethlisbergerCarson WentzKirk CousinsDak PrescottTyrod TaylorMatthew StaffordCase KeenumEli ManningCarson WentzCam Newton
14Matthew StaffordJoe FlaccoMatthew StaffordCarson WentzBen RoethlisbergerJared GoffRussell WilsonDerek CarrBen RoethlisbergerBen Roethlisberger
15Joe FlaccoBen RoethlisbergerTyrod TaylorMatthew StaffordMatthew StaffordKirk CousinsCam NewtonMatt RyanJoe FlaccoJoe Flacco
16Jared GoffRyan FitzpatrickCase KeenumRyan FitzpatrickRyan FitzpatrickTyrod TaylorJoe FlaccoBlaine GabbertMatthew StaffordCase Keenum
17DeShone KizerMatthew StaffordAlex SmithCase KeenumCarson WentzAlex SmithBrett HundleyBrett HundleyRyan FitzpatrickBlaine Gabbert
18Case KeenumDeShone KizerJared GoffJoe FlaccoCase KeenumCase KeenumKirk CousinsDak PrescottJared GoffMatthew Stafford
19Ryan FitzpatrickCase KeenumRyan FitzpatrickAndy DaltonJared GoffAndy DaltonMitchell TrubiskyCarson WentzCase KeenumMatt Ryan
20Tyrod TaylorAndy DaltonAndy DaltonAlex SmithAndy DaltonRyan FitzpatrickTyrod TaylorJosh McCownJosh McCownCarson Wentz
21Andy DaltonJared GoffJoe FlaccoJosh McCownJosh McCownJoe FlaccoRyan FitzpatrickRyan FitzpatrickAndy DaltonBrock Osweiler
22Josh McCownJosh McCownEli ManningJared GoffEli ManningJosh McCownJosh McCownAndy DaltonAlex SmithEli Manning
23Eli ManningEli ManningJosh McCownEli ManningAlex SmithEli ManningMatthew StaffordBlake BortlesMitchell TrubiskyJared Goff
24Alex SmithAlex SmithJay CutlerMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyJay CutlerBlaine GabbertMitchell TrubiskyDeShone KizerRyan Fitzpatrick
25Blaine GabbertMitchell TrubiskyBlaine GabbertJay CutlerDeShone KizerBlaine GabbertBrock OsweilerDeShone KizerEli ManningMitchell Trubisky
26Jay CutlerBlaine GabbertDeShone KizerDeShone KizerBrett HundleyMitchell TrubiskyAndy DaltonJay CutlerBlaine GabbertAndy Dalton
27Mitchell TrubiskyJay CutlerMitchell TrubiskyBlaine GabbertJay CutlerDeShone KizerJay CutlerBrock OsweilerJay CutlerJimmy Garoppolo
28Brock OsweilerBrett HundleyJacoby BrissettBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerJacoby BrissettJimmy GaroppoloJoe FlaccoJacoby BrissettDeShone Kizer
29Brett HundleyBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerBrett HundleyBlaine GabbertBrock OsweilerTom SavageTom SavageBrock OsweilerBrett Hundley
30Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettBrett HundleyJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettBrett HundleyEli ManningMatthew StaffordBrett HundleyJacoby Brissett
31Jimmy GaroppoloJimmy GaroppoloTom SavageTom SavageJimmy GaroppoloTom SavageJacoby BrissettJimmy GaroppoloTom SavageTom Savage
32Tom SavageTom SavageJimmy GaroppoloJimmy GaroppoloTom SavageJimmy GaroppoloDeShone KizerJacoby BrissettJimmy GaroppoloJay Cutler

Conclusions

[Jimmy Garoppolo is too new to really model well with my 2017-only models, but we have a little data from 2016 that might be worthwhile. He also has a bunch of games where he just played a few snaps, so modeling him is going to be tricky.]

Models E, H, D, and I are my best models. Who should I stream, O great models:

  • Blake Bortles (v JAC): Bortles has been surprisingly good this year, and not even just in garbage time. Indy isn’t a bad matchup. He’s probably my favorite streamer this week
  • Joe Flacco (v. DET): DET is an OK matchup, but Flacco has been awful some weeks, especially in my league. This is a case where the models like him much more than I.
  • Case Keenum (at ATL): He’s just been so consistent. Until they bench him for Bridgewater, I’ll keep rolling with him

CAUTION:

  • Andy Dalton (v. PIT): Really tough to suggest a guy up against PIT. I’d suspect he has to throw it a lot, but the preticted score is 18.5, and that seems like a fair estimate for the week 
  • Eli Manning (at OAK): Oakland is a good matchup, but With the exception of weeks 3 and 4 Eli has probably lost you the week whenever you’ve played him. Ignore my models and leave him on the waiver wire

I still have Goff, and I’m playing him this week, but he has terrible matchups in the fantasy playoffs and he’s already shown that he can’t be trusted in those bad matchups. Expect a better analysis from me next week as I desperately hope for someone better than Flacco to stream.

Week 13 K Results

Week 13 DEF Predictions