Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 10 K Predictions

Model F might be better than guessing, but not by much. Let’s not guess, let’s actually try, shall we?

Let’s see the models for this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017

Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview
 

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Chris BoswellGreg ZuerleinStephen GostkowskiGreg ZuerleinGreg ZuerleinGreg ZuerleinGreg Zuerlein
2Stephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiWil LutzStephen GostkowskiChris BoswellStephen GostkowskiMatt Bryant
3Blair WalshMatt BryantMatt BryantMatt BryantMatt BryantChris BoswellStephen Gostkowski
4Matt BryantChris BoswellStephen HauschkaMatt PraterStephen GostkowskiMatt BryantRandy Bullock
5Greg ZuerleinMatt PraterChris BoswellChris BoswellMatt PraterMatt PraterZane Gonzalez
6Wil LutzGraham GanoAdam VinatieriGraham GanoGraham GanoGraham GanoBlair Walsh
7Graham GanoBlair WalshMatt PraterBlair WalshWil LutzWil LutzRobbie Gould
8Ryan SuccopWil LutzBlair WalshWil LutzMike NugentBlair WalshKa'imi Fairbairn
9Stephen HauschkaRyan SuccopMason CrosbyRyan SuccopBlair WalshJosh LamboNick Novak
10Matt PraterConnor BarthNick NovakConnor BarthRyan SuccopKai ForbathAldrick Rosas
11Robbie GouldKai ForbathGraham GanoKai ForbathJosh LamboConnor BarthPatrick Murray
12Connor BarthJosh LamboBrandon McManusJosh LamboConnor BarthRyan SuccopNick Rose
13Josh LamboStephen HauschkaMike NugentStephen HauschkaKai ForbathStephen HauschkaMike Nugent
14Nick NovakRobbie GouldChandler CatanzaroRobbie GouldStephen HauschkaRobbie GouldConnor Barth
15Kai ForbathChandler CatanzaroRobbie GouldChandler CatanzaroChandler CatanzaroAldrick RosasGraham Gano
16Mike NugentMike NugentKai ForbathMike NugentAldrick RosasMike NugentChris Boswell
17Cody ParkeyNick NovakJosh LamboNick NovakNick RoseChandler CatanzaroStephen Hauschka
18Randy BullockPhil DawsonGreg ZuerleinPhil DawsonRobbie GouldNick NovakMason Crosby
19Nick RoseAdam VinatieriCody ParkeyAdam VinatieriPatrick MurrayPhil DawsonKai Forbath
20Mason CrosbyPatrick MurrayRandy BullockAldrick RosasBrandon McManusMason CrosbyChandler Catanzaro
21Brandon McManusAldrick RosasConnor BarthPatrick MurrayMason CrosbyBrandon McManusBrandon McManus
22Phil DawsonMason CrosbyPhil DawsonMason CrosbyNick NovakRandy BullockAdam Vinatieri
23Chandler CatanzaroBrandon McManusKa'imi FairbairnBrandon McManusPhil DawsonNick RoseWil Lutz
24Patrick MurrayRandy BullockRyan SuccopRandy BullockRandy BullockPatrick MurrayCody Parkey
25Aldrick RosasCody ParkeyPatrick MurrayNick RoseAdam VinatieriCody ParkeyPhil Dawson
26Adam VinatieriNick RoseNick RoseCody ParkeyKa'imi FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnMatt Prater
27Zane GonzalezKa'imi FairbairnAldrick RosasKa'imi FairbairnZane GonzalezAdam VinatieriJosh Lambo
28Ka'imi FairbairnZane GonzalezZane GonzalezZane GonzalezCody ParkeyZane GonzalezRyan Succop

Conclusions

I can’t tell whether kickers make me a nihilist (nothing matters, why bother) or a goth (life is pain, and I’m sad now). I guess both. I’ll go work on QB and lfex rankings to make me feel better. There’s something you can predict.

You know, if you ignore Kareem Hunt, Doug Martin, and Aaron Jones who were all predicted to do well but helped me lose last week.

Okay, I’m too sad to keep writing here. I’m out

Week 10 QB Predictions

Week 10 DEF Predictions