Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 10 QB Predictions

Model H is absolutely killing it! Almost all of my top picks last week did well (Goff, Stafford, Cutler) with the lone exception being McCown. Even some of the guys my model liked that I didn’t (Beathard and Brissett) turned in useable games if you were in a pinch.

Fewer teams out this week, but you should always be streaming. This is a position with some depth; the top 6 QBs last week scored within 4 points of each other, and the top 14 scored within 10 (in standard scoring, similar results in our system where QBs lose a point for getting sacked.)

Here are the models for this week:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017
GPLSXXXXX X2017
HLMXXX X X2017
IMany LMsXXXXXX 2015-2017
JMany LMsXXXXXX 2016-2017*

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary
 

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Cam NewtonCam NewtonDrew BreesCam NewtonCam NewtonDrew BreesJared GoffRussell WilsonCam NewtonMatthew Stafford
2Russell WilsonRussell WilsonCam NewtonMatt RyanMatt RyanCam NewtonMatt RyanDak PrescottRussell WilsonMatt Ryan
3Tom BradyMatt RyanDak PrescottDrew BreesMatthew StaffordDak PrescottBen RoethlisbergerCam NewtonMatt RyanCam Newton
4Drew BreesMatthew StaffordTom BradyBen RoethlisbergerRussell WilsonTom BradyTom BradyBen RoethlisbergerMatthew StaffordTom Brady
5Matthew StaffordTom BradyMatt RyanMatthew StaffordTom BradyMatt RyanMatthew StaffordEli ManningDak PrescottDak Prescott
6Matt RyanDrew BreesBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottDrew BreesBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottJared GoffTom BradyRussell Wilson
7C.J. BeathardC.J. BeathardRussell WilsonTom BradyBen RoethlisbergerMatthew StaffordDrew BreesMatthew StaffordDrew BreesMarcus Mariota
8Dak PrescottBlake BortlesMatthew StaffordRussell WilsonBlake BortlesRussell WilsonCam NewtonJosh McCownBen RoethlisbergerBen Roethlisberger
9Blake BortlesBen RoethlisbergerMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesDak PrescottMarcus MariotaRussell WilsonDrew BreesC.J. BeathardDrew Brees
10Ben RoethlisbergerDak PrescottBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaKirk CousinsMarcus MariotaAndy Dalton
11Marcus MariotaEli ManningKirk CousinsKirk CousinsEli ManningKirk CousinsBlake BortlesMatt RyanEli ManningJared Goff
12Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsEli ManningEli ManningKirk CousinsEli ManningTyrod TaylorTom BradyKirk CousinsC.J. Beathard
13Eli ManningMarcus MariotaPhilip RiversCase KeenumPhilip RiversC.J. BeathardCase KeenumTyrod TaylorBlake BortlesEli Manning
14Philip RiversAndy DaltonC.J. BeathardAndy DaltonAndy DaltonJared GoffMitchell TrubiskyAndy DaltonAndy DaltonBrock Osweiler
15Andy DaltonPhilip RiversAndy DaltonJared GoffCase KeenumPhilip RiversJosh McCownC.J. BeathardJosh McCownKirk Cousins
16Ryan FitzpatrickJosh McCownRyan FitzpatrickPhilip RiversRyan FitzpatrickRyan FitzpatrickEli ManningMarcus MariotaPhilip RiversTyrod Taylor
17Jared GoffRyan FitzpatrickJared GoffJosh McCownJosh McCownAndy DaltonKirk CousinsCase KeenumRyan FitzpatrickBlake Bortles
18Josh McCownJared GoffCase KeenumRyan FitzpatrickJared GoffCase KeenumC.J. BeathardJay CutlerJared GoffDeShone Kizer
19Case KeenumCase KeenumJosh McCownTyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorJosh McCownRyan FitzpatrickJacoby BrissettCase KeenumCase Keenum
20DeShone KizerDeShone KizerTyrod TaylorC.J. BeathardC.J. BeathardTyrod TaylorBrock OsweilerBlake BortlesDeShone KizerJosh McCown
21Tyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorJay CutlerJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettBrett HundleyDrew StantonTyrod TaylorJay Cutler
22Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettMitchell TrubiskyDeShone KizerJay CutlerPhilip RiversMitchell TrubiskyJacoby BrissettPhilip Rivers
23Jay CutlerJay CutlerDeShone KizerDeShone KizerMitchell TrubiskyDeShone KizerDrew StantonDeShone KizerJay CutlerMitchell Trubisky
24Mitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyJay CutlerJay CutlerMitchell TrubiskyAndy DaltonBrock OsweilerMitchell TrubiskyJacoby Brissett
25Brock OsweilerBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerJacoby BrissettPhilip RiversBrock OsweilerRyan Fitzpatrick
26Drew StantonDrew StantonDrew StantonDrew StantonTom SavageDrew StantonTom SavageRyan FitzpatrickDrew StantonDrew Stanton
27Tom SavageTom SavageTom SavageTom SavageDrew StantonTom SavageDeShone KizerBrett HundleyTom SavageBrett Hundley
28Brett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBrett HundleyJay CutlerTom SavageBrett HundleyTom Savage

Conclusions

I finally dropped Stafford and he had an OK week. Not great, but OK. I still feel okay about this, especially because my streamer of the week, Case Keenum, had a great week for me. Full disclosure: I have Goff already, so I might be higher on him than is warranted.

Let’s look at the top streaming options this week from Model H:

  • Tyrod Taylor (v NO): Games against New Orleans have been high scoring affairs and this one will likely be no different. Taylor also gets back his favorite target, Charles Clay. Add in a floor from rushing and you’ve got a good streamer for the week
  • Matthew Stafford (v CLE): It’s tough to not start someone against Cleveland. Their rushing defense has been good, but they give up a lot of points to QBs.
  • C. J. Beathard (v. NYG): The Giants have been pretty bad against fantasy QBs this year. Again, a nice floor from rushing, Beathard is a good pick to end up in the middle of the pack this week.
  • Jared Goff (v HOU): The Rams have the highest predicted score for the week with 29 points. This might get ugly, and I’d like to have Goff for this one.

CAUTION:

  • Eli Manning (at SF): SF has been pretty bad this year; they just gave up 15 points to Stanton last week and that was one of their better games. But Eli hasn’t dome much this year, even against middling opponents like the Rams and the Chargers. Aside from games against PHI and TB, he’s had a pretty rough year. I don’t trust him this week to be in the top-12, though I’d be surprised if he ends up under 12 points.

This looks like a good week for streamers. There are a lot of little-owned guys in good matchups this week. We’ll probably get the usual: two or three great players, two dozen good ones. I think it’ll be pretty easy to end up in that second group this week.

Week 10 Flex Predictions

Week 10 K Predictions