Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 16 QB Predictions

My best QB models are still E and H, with I, and D a little behind.

I’m in the championship game this week in my league, and I hope you are, too. Hopefully you’ve planned ahead and either have good QBs or picked a guy with a good matchup already. Let’s see what our streaming options are:

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary
 

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Cam NewtonCam NewtonCam NewtonCam NewtonCam NewtonCam NewtonTom BradyRussell WilsonCam NewtonRussell Wilson
2Drew BreesDrew BreesTom BradyBen RoethlisbergerDrew BreesTom BradyNick FolesBen RoethlisbergerDrew BreesCam Newton
3Dak PrescottRussell WilsonDrew BreesDrew BreesRussell WilsonBen RoethlisbergerJared GoffCam NewtonAaron RodgersAlex Smith
4Tom BradyAaron RodgersBen RoethlisbergerTom BradyAaron RodgersDrew BreesAlex SmithDrew StantonRussell WilsonAaron Rodgers
5Russell WilsonDak PrescottDak PrescottAaron RodgersTom BradyRussell WilsonJoe FlaccoAlex SmithBlake BortlesPhilip Rivers
6Aaron RodgersAlex SmithAaron RodgersRussell WilsonDak PrescottDak PrescottBen RoethlisbergerPhilip RiversDak PrescottTom Brady
7Philip RiversBlake BortlesRussell WilsonBlake BortlesAlex SmithBlake BortlesDak PrescottCase KeenumTom BradyDak Prescott
8Alex SmithTom BradyMatthew StaffordNick FolesBlake BortlesPhilip RiversCam NewtonDrew BreesAlex SmithNick Foles
9Matthew StaffordBen RoethlisbergerPhilip RiversDak PrescottBen RoethlisbergerMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversAaron RodgersBen RoethlisbergerDrew Brees
10Joe FlaccoPhilip RiversNick FolesMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversAlex SmithBlake BortlesTyrod TaylorPhilip RiversBlake Bortles
11Blake BortlesJoe FlaccoBlake BortlesAlex SmithJoe FlaccoNick FolesDrew BreesBlake BortlesJoe FlaccoJoe Flacco
12Ben RoethlisbergerMatthew StaffordMarcus MariotaPhilip RiversMatthew StaffordKirk CousinsMatthew StaffordTom BradyMatthew StaffordBen Roethlisberger
13Kirk CousinsTyrod TaylorAlex SmithJoe FlaccoNick FolesMarcus MariotaMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyNick FolesMitchell Trubisky
14Drew StantonDrew StantonJoe FlaccoTyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorJared GoffKirk CousinsJared GoffTyrod TaylorMatthew Stafford
15Nick FolesNick FolesKirk CousinsDerek CarrDrew StantonDerek CarrDrew StantonKirk CousinsDerek CarrCase Keenum
16Marcus MariotaDerek CarrDerek CarrKirk CousinsCase KeenumJoe FlaccoRussell WilsonDak PrescottDrew StantonMarcus Mariota
17DeShone KizerKirk CousinsAndy DaltonMarcus MariotaDerek CarrMatt RyanMarcus MariotaMatthew StaffordMarcus MariotaTyrod Taylor
18Matt RyanMatt RyanJared GoffAndy DaltonMatt RyanAndy DaltonCase KeenumDerek CarrCase KeenumJared Goff
19Jared GoffCase KeenumTyrod TaylorCase KeenumKirk CousinsMitchell TrubiskyAaron RodgersEli ManningMatt RyanDerek Carr
20Derek CarrMarcus MariotaJameis WinstonMatt RyanAndy DaltonDrew StantonDerek CarrAndy DaltonKirk CousinsKirk Cousins
21Tyrod TaylorAndy DaltonMatt RyanJared GoffJared GoffJameis WinstonAndy DaltonJoe FlaccoMitchell TrubiskyAndy Dalton
22Andy DaltonDeShone KizerCase KeenumMitchell TrubiskyMarcus MariotaTyrod TaylorJimmy GaroppoloJameis WinstonJared GoffMatt Ryan
23Case KeenumMitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyDrew StantonMitchell TrubiskyEli ManningBrock OsweilerJay CutlerAndy DaltonJay Cutler
24Mitchell TrubiskyJared GoffDrew StantonJameis WinstonBrock OsweilerCase KeenumMatt RyanMatt RyanDeShone KizerJameis Winston
25Jameis WinstonBryce PettyEli ManningEli ManningDeShone KizerAaron RodgersBryce PettyNick FolesJameis WinstonDeShone Kizer
26Eli ManningBrock OsweilerJimmy GaroppoloBrock OsweilerBryce PettyJimmy GaroppoloEli ManningDeShone KizerEli ManningJacoby Brissett
27Brock OsweilerJameis WinstonBrock OsweilerJay CutlerJameis WinstonBrock OsweilerTyrod TaylorBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerEli Manning
28Bryce PettyEli ManningDeShone KizerJimmy GaroppoloEli ManningBryce PettyJay CutlerMarcus MariotaBryce PettyDrew Stanton
29Jimmy GaroppoloJimmy GaroppoloJay CutlerBryce PettyJay CutlerJay CutlerTom SavageJimmy GaroppoloJacoby BrissettBrock Osweiler
30Jay CutlerJay CutlerBryce PettyDeShone KizerJimmy GaroppoloDeShone KizerJameis WinstonTom SavageJay CutlerJimmy Garoppolo
31Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettTom SavageDeShone KizerBryce PettyJimmy GaroppoloBryce Petty
32Tom SavageTom SavageTom SavageTom SavageTom SavageJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettTom SavageTom Savage

Conclusions

[I don’t know what to do about Nick Foles. I have him and might play him, but clearly I can’t model him.]

Here’s where I usually cry about how many QBs my league has stashed, but since they have 2 or 3 guys stashed then so do I. I have Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, and Nick Foles. I won’t be able to look at my league and pick out which guys aren’t owned (since they pretty much all are) but let’s see if I can find a few who are little-owned:

  • Drew Stanton (v. NYG): Stanton was alright against SF and SEA, neither of which is an especially good matchup. Against the Giants who have allowed some of the most points to a QB he could be a great play this week
  • Case Keenum and Blake Bortles: If you’re not playing either of these guys then you have one of the weekly top-5 QBs. If they’re still available in your league, pick one up and play him.
  • Nick Foles (at OAK): He did great against the Giants. Is he a good piece in a great offense, or just a flash against the worst defense in the league? I’m guessing the former, so I’m firing him up this week.

CAUTION:

  • Mitchell Trubisky (v CLE): He’s up here because of the matchup, but he’s only had two games over 15 points and 1 game over 20. His floor is LOW. Ignore Model H and leave him on the waiver wire

I want to play Nick Foles this week, but there are a few questions. First, I only have 1 data point for him. It’s a doozy, but still. Second, Oakland is a middling defense but they’ve been good for the last few weeks. Third, I have Jared Goff going against TEN. They’ve been good against bad QBs and bad against good ones. I’m not sure which I think Goff is.

Whoever I pick, he’ll be better than Matt Stafford this week, that’s for sure. (That’s not for sure. My opponent has Stafford. I actually like him this week against a middling CIN defense who have held everyone under 20 pts but allowed 11 over 10 points, IUOH scoring. Crap. I really want to win this thing.)

Good luck to everyone still playing. I’m not sure yet if I’ll write predictions for week 17, but I’ll wrap things up at the end of the year and discuss future models. I have good feelings about this offseason.

Week 16 DEF Predictions