Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 14 DEF Predictions

The playoffs are here! The playoffs are here! It’s the most wonderful time of the year (for about half of us).

Model F is my current leader, though none of them are too bad. Here are some streaming defenses for the first week of the playoffs:

 

Model A:

.Model A-1.png


Model A parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model A Notes:

Uses only data from 2017
Standard points
Did well in 2016, but didn’t stand out

Model C:

.Model C-1.png


Model C parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model C Notes:

Uses data from 2015-2017
Standard scoring
Did well in 2016, but didn’t stand out

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Model F parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model F Notes:

Uses data from 2015-2017
Truscor ignores defense TDs but weights interceptions and fumbles to try to account for it
I really liked this one in 2016. It was marginally better than A and C

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Model G parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model G Notes:

Uses data from 2015-2017
Truscor ignores defense TDs but weights interceptions and fumbles to try to account for it
Uses Bayesian statistics (Gibbs sampler) to create a model
Would have done very well in 2016 based on simulation

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Model H parameters:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model H Notes:

Uses only data from 2017
Uses TruScor points to reduce the effect of TDs

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Model I parameters may include:

The team that’s playing
Who their opponent is
Their predicted score
Their opponent’s predicted score
Whether the team is home or away
Model I Notes:

Data from 2015-2017
This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above.

Week 14 model summary:
 

RankACFGHI
1LACMINGBGBGBMIN
2GBGBNYJPITNYJGB
3JACDENTENNYJLACJAC
4BUFJACMINJACLARDEN
5LARLARLARLARJACLAC
6DETNYJPITTENNEPIT
7NYJTENJACMINBUFBUF
8NELACNENEPITNYJ
9BALPHIDENBUFBALLAR
10TBBUFBUFLACSFTEN
11DENPITLACDENTBCIN
12PITNEPHICINTENNE
13CINARISFHOUPHIDET
14SEADETCINTBDETPHI
15SFSEADETPHIDENARI
16CHISFARIARISEADAL
17HOUCINSEADALINDSEA
18TENTBTBDETDALTB
19INDBALHOUSFMINKC
20PHIKCBALCARCLEHOU
21NYGDALDALSEAHOUSF
22DALHOUCARCLECHICLE
23CLENYGCLEKCCINBAL
24MINCLEINDBALARIIND
25ARIINDWASNYGNYGNYG
26NOCHIKCINDWASCHI
27MIAWASCHIWASNOCAR
28KCCARNYGCHIKCWAS
29ATLNONONOCARNO
30WASOAKOAKOAKATLOAK
31CARATLATLATLMIAATL
32OAKMIAMIAMIAOAKMIA

Conclusions

There are a lot of streaming options this week based on good matchups; the top 3 teams in Model F are all potential streamers this week. Here are a few that might be available in your league (they were in mine):

  • GB (at CLE): GB hasn’t been great, but CLE has had a lot of turnovers this year. It’s easy to imagine a pick-6 that gives you a decent week
  • NYJ (at DEN): Denver hasn’t been able to score much lately. Just like GB at CLE above, this is a matchup-based pick.
  • TEN (at ARI): Arizona gives up points to defenses and Tennessee’s defense has been OK this year. It’s all about matchups this week
  • TB (v. DET): Monitor Stafford’s condition. If he’s out (throwing-hand injury) or even if it looks really bad, TB has been known to capitalize on these types of situations. Their defense has really boom/bust last year, and those beeoms were in situations like this.

CAUTION:

  • PHI at LAR and LAR at PHI: Both have good offenses. Both have good defenses. I’m thinking this averages out to not many defensive points for each team. This should be a great game to watch, though.


After those top 3 the next dozen are the defenses you’d expect. If you already have one of them then you’re in good shape this week. Good luck in the first week of the playoffs and remember: if you lose, you’re out. So choose well.

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