Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 14 QB Predictions

My best QB models are still E, H, I, and D (in that order). If you’re using the same scoring system that we do in my league, Illegal Use of Hands, then your QBs are losing 1 point per sack they take. Going with the expert opinions (in this case, Yahoo) is dangerous since they don’t use this system.

I will be using my models this week because they’re awesome and so am I, but also they’re the only ones out there for my specific situation. Let’s see who my models think I should go with this week:

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Model I:

.Model I-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above

Model J:

.Model J-1.png

Terms may include:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2016-2017 for most people, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff

Model details: This model tries to predict all of the components of scoring separately (pass yards, pass TD, rush yards, interceptions, sacks, etc.). Each component comes from a linear model containing only the significant terms (p < 0.05) from the list of possible terms above. I also modified the data years; 2016 and 2017 for most players, 2017 only for Alex Smith and Jared Goff since there’s been so much improvement since last year.

Weekly model summary
 

RankABCDEFGHIJ
1Drew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesDrew BreesTom BradyAlex SmithTom BradyTom Brady
2Tom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyTom BradyDrew BreesTom BradyDrew BreesBen Roethlisberger
3Ben RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerMatt RyanMatt RyanBen RoethlisbergerMatt RyanMatt RyanDerek CarrBen RoethlisbergerAlex Smith
4Cam NewtonCam NewtonCam NewtonPhilip RiversMatt RyanCam NewtonAlex SmithDrew BreesMatt RyanDrew Brees
5Matt RyanMatt RyanPhilip RiversCam NewtonCam NewtonPhilip RiversPhilip RiversCam NewtonCam NewtonEli Manning
6Alex SmithAlex SmithBen RoethlisbergerMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversBen RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottPhilip RiversDerek Carr
7Marcus MariotaPhilip RiversMarcus MariotaBen RoethlisbergerAlex SmithMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaCase KeenumMatthew StaffordJameis Winston
8Russell WilsonMatthew StaffordDak PrescottDerek CarrMatthew StaffordDak PrescottDak PrescottBlaine GabbertAlex SmithJared Goff
9Philip RiversMarcus MariotaMatthew StaffordJameis WinstonJameis WinstonMatthew StaffordTyrod TaylorPhilip RiversDerek CarrDak Prescott
10Matthew StaffordJameis WinstonDerek CarrDak PrescottMarcus MariotaRussell WilsonTom SavageJay CutlerDak PrescottBlake Bortles
11Blake BortlesRussell WilsonRussell WilsonMarcus MariotaDerek CarrDerek CarrAndy DaltonMatt RyanJameis WinstonMatt Ryan
12Jameis WinstonDerek CarrJameis WinstonAlex SmithKirk CousinsAlex SmithDerek CarrMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaBlaine Gabbert
13Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsAlex SmithKirk CousinsRussell WilsonJameis WinstonJared GoffRussell WilsonKirk CousinsTyrod Taylor
14Derek CarrBlake BortlesAndy DaltonTyrod TaylorEli ManningBlake BortlesCase KeenumKirk CousinsRussell WilsonMatthew Stafford
15Andy DaltonDak PrescottBlake BortlesBlake BortlesBlake BortlesAndy DaltonBrett HundleyBrett HundleyBlake BortlesKirk Cousins
16Dak PrescottEli ManningTyrod TaylorEli ManningDak PrescottTyrod TaylorMatthew StaffordJimmy GaroppoloEli ManningCase Keenum
17Tyrod TaylorJay CutlerKirk CousinsRussell WilsonJay CutlerKirk CousinsBlake BortlesDeShone KizerTyrod TaylorCam Newton
18Case KeenumTyrod TaylorCase KeenumAndy DaltonAndy DaltonCarson WentzJosh McCownAndy DaltonJay CutlerMarcus Mariota
19Carson WentzAndy DaltonCarson WentzJay CutlerTyrod TaylorCase KeenumBlaine GabbertEli ManningAndy DaltonPhilip Rivers
20Eli ManningJared GoffEli ManningDeShone KizerCase KeenumEli ManningJameis WinstonMatthew StaffordCase KeenumJimmy Garoppolo
21Josh McCownCase KeenumJosh McCownCase KeenumJared GoffJared GoffKirk CousinsBen RoethlisbergerJared GoffRussell Wilson
22Jared GoffBlaine GabbertDeShone KizerJosh McCownJosh McCownJosh McCownCarson WentzTyrod TaylorBlaine GabbertCarson Wentz
23Blaine GabbertCarson WentzJared GoffJared GoffBlaine GabbertDeShone KizerBrock OsweilerCarson WentzJosh McCownJay Cutler
24Jay CutlerJosh McCownJay CutlerCarson WentzCarson WentzJay CutlerJimmy GaroppoloTom SavageTom SavageTom Savage
25Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJoe FlaccoJoe FlaccoTom SavageBlaine GabbertJacoby BrissettJosh McCownDeShone KizerJacoby Brissett
26Joe FlaccoJoe FlaccoBlaine GabbertBlaine GabbertDeShone KizerJoe FlaccoCam NewtonJared GoffCarson WentzBrock Osweiler
27DeShone KizerDeShone KizerJacoby BrissettTom SavageJoe FlaccoJacoby BrissettEli ManningJameis WinstonJacoby BrissettAndy Dalton
28Jimmy GaroppoloTom SavageMitchell TrubiskyJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettBrock OsweilerDeShone KizerBlake BortlesJoe FlaccoDeShone Kizer
29Tom SavageJimmy GaroppoloBrock OsweilerBrett HundleyJimmy GaroppoloTom SavageJay CutlerMitchell TrubiskyJimmy GaroppoloBrett Hundley
30Mitchell TrubiskyMitchell TrubiskyTom SavageMitchell TrubiskyBrett HundleyMitchell TrubiskyRussell WilsonJacoby BrissettMitchell TrubiskyMitchell Trubisky
31Brock OsweilerBrock OsweilerBrett HundleyBrock OsweilerMitchell TrubiskyBrett HundleyJoe FlaccoBrock OsweilerBrock OsweilerJosh McCown
32Brett HundleyBrett HundleyJimmy GaroppoloJimmy GaroppoloBrock OsweilerJimmy GaroppoloMitchell TrubiskyJoe FlaccoBrett HundleyJoe Flacco

Conclusions

[Jimmy Garoppolo is too new to really model well with my 2017-only models, but we have a little data from 2016 that might be worthwhile. He also has a bunch of games where he just played a few snaps, so modeling him is going to be tricky.]

Models E, H, I, and D are my best models. Let’s see if we can find some streamers in that pile:

  • Jameis Winston (v. DET): He’s potentially available because he was injured, but he’s back and ready for an OK matchup against the Lions. He did well enough last week and I’d expect that again, though turnovers are always a problem.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (at HOU): With the exception of Andy Dalton (week 2), Kevin Hogan (played week 6 for CLE, remember?), and Joe Flacco (week 12), every QB has done very well against Houston. Garoppolo will be no exception.

CAUTION:

  • Blake Bortles (v. SEA): Does he even count as a streamer anymore? Seattle’s pass defense has been good this season. Deshaun Watson torched then in Week 7, but Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, and even Aaron Rodgers have only turned in useable performances. I think your changes of a good week from Bortles are pretty limited, so if you have another QB I’d go with him.
  • Jay Cutler (v. NE): This looks like a good matchup only if you remember the New England defense from the beginning of the year. Sit Cutler this week, the Patriots haven’t given up many points in the last 6 weeks, and I don’t think they’ll start now.

Last week I cautioned you against Andy Dalton and he did well. I also cautioned you against Eli and look at that, 0 points! That’s a victory, right?

There are also some probably-owned guys who are good starts in here as well. Check out Models E and H, and if you’re using our scoring system then those are the guys to go with.

Week 14 DEF Predictions

Week 14 K Predictions