Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 2 K Predictions

Randomly guessing in week 1 almost tied my top models. Let’s just do this:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017

 

Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I

.Model I-1.png


Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Giorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioJustin TuckerStephen GostkowskiGiorgio TavecchioMason Crosby
2Graham GanoJustin TuckerJustin TuckerGiorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioJustin TuckerJustin Tucker
3Matt BryantBlair WalshMatt BryantBlair WalshBlair WalshBlair WalshBlair Walsh
4Nick FolkStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiMatt BryantStephen GostkowskiYounghoe Koo
5Ryan SuccopNick FolkWil LutzGraham GanoCairo SantosGraham GanoKai Forbath
6Dan BaileyMatt BryantGraham GanoMatt BryantChris BoswellMatt BryantConnor Barth
7Chris BoswellGraham GanoSteven HauschkaNick FolkPhil DawsonWil LutzRyan Succop
8Phil DawsonDan BaileyCairo SantosCairo SantosMason CrosbyNick FolkRobbie Gould
9Blair WalshWil LutzDustin HopkinsDan BaileyGraham GanoDan BaileyAdam Vinatieri
10Jason MyersCairo SantosCaleb SturgisPhil DawsonWil LutzCairo SantosDustin Hopkins
11Justin TuckerPhil DawsonDan BaileyChris BoswellNick FolkChris BoswellStephen Gostkowski
12Stephen GostkowskiChris BoswellBrandon McManusWil LutzAldrick RosasPhil DawsonBrandon McManus
13Brandon McManusGreg ZuerleinBlair WalshGreg ZuerleinJustin TuckerJason MyersChandler Catanzaro
14Steven HauschkaDustin HopkinsChris BoswellAldrick RosasYounghoe KooGreg ZuerleinDan Bailey
15Wil LutzJason MyersMatt PraterDustin HopkinsGreg ZuerleinDustin HopkinsRandy Bullock
16Cairo SantosAldrick RosasChandler CatanzaroJason MyersRyan SuccopCaleb SturgisNick Folk
17Matt PraterCaleb SturgisAdam VinatieriCaleb SturgisDan BaileyBrandon McManusPhil Dawson
18Adam VinatieriBrandon McManusMason CrosbyBrandon McManusDustin HopkinsMatt PraterSteven Hauschka
19Mason CrosbyMason CrosbyJason MyersYounghoe KooCaleb SturgisMason CrosbyCaleb Sturgis
20Caleb SturgisMatt PraterRobbie GouldMason CrosbyRandy BullockRyan SuccopGiorgio Tavecchio
21Greg ZuerleinAdam VinatieriNick FolkRandy BullockJason MyersSteven HauschkaKa'imi Fairbairn
22Dustin HopkinsSteven HauschkaKai ForbathMatt PraterBrandon McManusRandy BullockAldrick Rosas
23Connor BarthRandy BullockRandy BullockRyan SuccopAndrew FranksKai ForbathGraham Gano
24Robbie GouldRyan SuccopConnor BarthAdam VinatieriMatt PraterAldrick RosasChris Boswell
25Kai ForbathKai ForbathGreg ZuerleinSteven HauschkaKai ForbathConnor BarthCairo Santos
26Randy BullockConnor BarthRyan SuccopKai ForbathAdam VinatieriRobbie GouldAndrew Franks
27Andrew FranksRobbie GouldPhil DawsonConnor BarthConnor BarthAndrew FranksGreg Zuerlein
28Chandler CatanzaroAndrew FranksAndrew FranksKa'imi FairbairnSteven HauschkaYounghoe KooJason Myers
29Aldrick RosasChandler CatanzaroZane GonzalezZane GonzalezKa'imi FairbairnAdam VinatieriMatt Bryant
30Zane GonzalezKa'imi FairbairnAldrick RosasRobbie GouldZane GonzalezChandler CatanzaroWil Lutz
31Younghoe KooYounghoe KooYounghoe KooAndrew FranksChandler CatanzaroKa'imi FairbairnMatt Prater
32Ka'imi FairbairnZane GonzalezKa'imi FairbairnChandler CatanzaroRobbie GouldZane GonzalezZane Gonzalez


Conclusions


Models F, G, H, I, and Random were technically the best last week, so let’s look at them as quickly as possible.

Giorgio Tavecchio stands out toward the top. He had a great week and is taking for for Janikowski. Go get him. You can’t always expect 19 point games, but he’s accurate and kicked two 52 yard field goals last week.

Walsh, Gano, Tucker, and Bryant stand out as well. Go get one of them.

Until one of these models stands out from Random, I just don’t even know what to do.

Go get a kicker. I’m done for the week.

Week 2 DEF Results

Week 2 QB Predictions