Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 3 K Predictions

Randomly guessing in week 1 almost tied my top models, but was bad in week 2. Model H, however, seemed to do alright both weeks. Model H is the insulting one that says that a kicker is only as good as their team’s predicted score.

I’m picking the top kicker from that one this week. Let’s see them all:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017

 

Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

 

Model D:

.Model D-1.png

Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I

.Model I-1.png


Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Justin TuckerGiorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioStephen GostkowskiGiorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioRyan Succop
2Giorgio TavecchioJustin TuckerMatt BryantJustin TuckerStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiChandler Catanzaro
3Caleb SturgisStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiGraham GanoMason CrosbyJustin TuckerAndrew Franks
4Graham GanoGraham GanoJustin TuckerMatt BryantGraham GanoMatt BryantAldrick Rosas
5Chris BoswellMatt BryantWil LutzDan BaileyChris BoswellGraham GanoDan Bailey
6Dan BaileyDan BaileyGraham GanoGiorgio TavecchioMatt BryantDan BaileyMatt Bryant
7Wil LutzCaleb SturgisSteven HauschkaChris BoswellDustin HopkinsCaleb SturgisStephen Gostkowski
8Dustin HopkinsNick FolkCairo SantosCaleb SturgisDan BaileyCairo SantosGiorgio Tavecchio
9Nick FolkChris BoswellDustin HopkinsMason CrosbyCairo SantosChris BoswellJason Myers
10Cairo SantosCairo SantosCaleb SturgisCairo SantosCaleb SturgisNick FolkDustin Hopkins
11Matt BryantMason CrosbyDan BaileyDustin HopkinsAndrew FranksMason CrosbyCaleb Sturgis
12Jason MyersDustin HopkinsChris BoswellNick FolkMatt PraterDustin HopkinsAdam Vinatieri
13Stephen GostkowskiWil LutzBrandon McManusBrandon McManusRyan SuccopBrandon McManusMason Crosby
14Zane GonzalezBrandon McManusBlair WalshMatt PraterJustin TuckerWil LutzGreg Zuerlein
15Brandon McManusMatt PraterMatt PraterGreg ZuerleinKai ForbathMatt PraterYounghoe Koo
16Mason CrosbyBlair WalshChandler CatanzaroWil LutzBrandon McManusBlair WalshJustin Tucker
17Blair WalshGreg ZuerleinAdam VinatieriAdam VinatieriNick FolkKai ForbathPhil Dawson
18Steven HauschkaAdam VinatieriNick FolkBlair WalshYounghoe KooSteven HauschkaKai Forbath
19Matt PraterSteven HauschkaMason CrosbyKai ForbathPhil DawsonGreg ZuerleinMatt Prater
20Greg ZuerleinKai ForbathRobbie GouldRyan SuccopGreg ZuerleinRobbie GouldKa'imi Fairbairn
21Robbie GouldRobbie GouldJason MyersSteven HauschkaWil LutzJason MyersBrandon McManus
22Phil DawsonJason MyersRandy BullockRobbie GouldZane GonzalezPhil DawsonNick Folk
23Adam VinatieriPhil DawsonKai ForbathJason MyersBlair WalshRyan SuccopGraham Gano
24Ryan SuccopRyan SuccopRyan SuccopPhil DawsonAldrick RosasConnor BarthSteven Hauschka
25Andrew FranksConnor BarthConnor BarthZane GonzalezRobbie GouldRandy BullockRandy Bullock
26Connor BarthAldrick RosasGreg ZuerleinAndrew FranksAdam VinatieriChandler CatanzaroCairo Santos
27Kai ForbathChandler CatanzaroPhil DawsonAldrick RosasConnor BarthAndrew FranksRobbie Gould
28Aldrick RosasAndrew FranksAndrew FranksYounghoe KooSteven HauschkaAdam VinatieriChris Boswell
29Chandler CatanzaroRandy BullockKa'imi FairbairnConnor BarthJason MyersAldrick RosasBlair Walsh
30Randy BullockZane GonzalezZane GonzalezChandler CatanzaroRandy BullockZane GonzalezWil Lutz
31Younghoe KooKa'imi FairbairnYounghoe KooRandy BullockChandler CatanzaroKa'imi FairbairnZane Gonzalez
32Ka'imi FairbairnYounghoe KooAldrick RosasKa'imi FairbairnKa'imi FairbairnYounghoe KooConnor Barth

 

Conclusions

Model D was the best last week, but the worst in week 2. Models F and H were good both weeks, so let’s see if we can find players toward the top of both of those lists.

I’d be surprised if too many of those top 10 are available, but at least in my league Hopkins and Boswell are both on the waiver wire. Go get one of them. Is Tavecchio still available? Go get him. I liked Sturgis last year and I like him this year, but someone has him in my league.

Whatever. These guys are all fine. Models F and H are the best so far, so use one of them and stop thinking about this.

Week 3 DEF Predictions

Week 2 K Results