Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 4 K Predictions

Seriously, who the hell is Jason Myers? I had to find him after he turned in a great week. (Jacksonville’s kicker, BTW). Last week randomly guessing beat all my models handily.

I’m picking the top kicker from either Model H or from the random list. Let’s see them:

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScore2OppScore2OppHomeTeamDataYears
DLMXXX XX2015-2017
ELMXXXXX 2015-2017
FLMX 2015-2017
GGibbs SamplerXXXXX 2015-2017
HLM X 2015-2017
IPLSXXXXXXX2015-2017


Model D was the best last year, but barely better than randomly guessing.

Model E Like D, but only keeping significant terms

Model F simply asks: who has done well in the past? Play that guy.

Model G turns Model E into a Bayesian model

Model H: highest scoring team will have the best kicker

Model I: feed in lots of data, get model, profit.

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Opponent
Home Team
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

The Player
Score
Opponent Score
Score^2
(Opponent Score)^2
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

The predicted score
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model I:

.Model I-1.png


Partial Least Squares

Random guess!

.random guess-1.png


Weekly model overview

RankDEFGHIRandom
1Giorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioGiorgio TavecchioMatt BryantMatt BryantMatt BryantChandler Catanzaro
2Nick FolkMatt BryantMatt BryantBlair WalshStephen GostkowskiGiorgio TavecchioConnor Barth
3Matt BryantWil LutzWil LutzDan BaileyCairo SantosBlair WalshGraham Gano
4Blair WalshDan BaileyStephen GostkowskiStephen GostkowskiBlair WalshDan BaileyBrandon McManus
5Ka'imi FairbairnBlair WalshJustin TuckerWil LutzMason CrosbyStephen GostkowskiRyan Succop
6Dan BaileyStephen GostkowskiGraham GanoCairo SantosDan BaileyWil LutzChris Boswell
7Stephen GostkowskiJustin TuckerSteven HauschkaJustin TuckerWil LutzCairo SantosNick Folk
8Brandon McManusKa'imi FairbairnDustin HopkinsNick FolkPhil DawsonJustin TuckerPhil Dawson
9Caleb SturgisNick FolkCairo SantosPhil DawsonBrandon McManusNick FolkStephen Gostkowski
10Justin TuckerCairo SantosCaleb SturgisMason CrosbyChris BoswellCaleb SturgisJustin Tucker
11Wil LutzCaleb SturgisMatt PraterBrandon McManusAndrew FranksBrandon McManusRobbie Gould
12Mason CrosbyBrandon McManusBrandon McManusJason MyersNick FolkPhil DawsonCairo Santos
13Matt PraterMatt PraterDan BaileyCaleb SturgisYounghoe KooKa'imi FairbairnAndrew Franks
14Robbie GouldJason MyersChris BoswellMatt PraterCaleb SturgisMatt PraterZane Gonzalez
15Phil DawsonPhil DawsonChandler CatanzaroChris BoswellGiorgio TavecchioJason MyersMatt Bryant
16Ryan SuccopMason CrosbyBlair WalshGiorgio TavecchioRyan SuccopMason CrosbyMatt Prater
17Jason MyersChris BoswellAdam VinatieriKai ForbathKai ForbathChris BoswellAdam Vinatieri
18Cairo SantosDustin HopkinsJason MyersKa'imi FairbairnMatt PraterKai ForbathBlair Walsh
19Steven HauschkaKai ForbathKa'imi FairbairnDustin HopkinsJason MyersDustin HopkinsKai Forbath
20Chris BoswellGraham GanoMason CrosbyRyan SuccopRandy BullockRandy BullockGiorgio Tavecchio
21Graham GanoRyan SuccopRobbie GouldRandy BullockDustin HopkinsSteven HauschkaGreg Zuerlein
22Greg ZuerleinSteven HauschkaNick FolkGraham GanoJustin TuckerGraham GanoMason Crosby
23Chandler CatanzaroRandy BullockKai ForbathYounghoe KooKa'imi FairbairnRyan SuccopKa'imi Fairbairn
24Aldrick RosasRobbie GouldRandy BullockSteven HauschkaSteven HauschkaRobbie GouldRandy Bullock
25Dustin HopkinsGreg ZuerleinRyan SuccopRobbie GouldAldrick RosasChandler CatanzaroYounghoe Koo
26Connor BarthChandler CatanzaroGreg ZuerleinAldrick RosasGraham GanoGreg ZuerleinCaleb Sturgis
27Kai ForbathConnor BarthConnor BarthChandler CatanzaroConnor BarthConnor BarthDan Bailey
28Adam VinatieriAldrick RosasPhil DawsonConnor BarthZane GonzalezAldrick RosasDustin Hopkins
29Andrew FranksAdam VinatieriAndrew FranksGreg ZuerleinRobbie GouldAndrew FranksSteven Hauschka
30Younghoe KooAndrew FranksAldrick RosasZane GonzalezChandler CatanzaroYounghoe KooWil Lutz
31Randy BullockYounghoe KooZane GonzalezAndrew FranksGreg ZuerleinAdam VinatieriJason Myers
32Zane GonzalezZane GonzalezYounghoe KooAdam VinatieriAdam VinatieriZane GonzalezAldrick Rosas


Conclusions

Yeah, I’m going with random this week. And bonus: if you pick up Connor Barth he plays on Thursday, so you can just get it over with. Rip that Band-aid off and just pick someone.

I hate predicting kickers so much.

Week 4 DEF Predictions

Week 3 K Results