Data scientist, physicist, and fantasy football champion

Week 4 QB Predictions

Week 3 was back to weird. Here was the top 12 last week (using our scoring system where QBs lose 1 point per sack):

Tom Brady
Russell Wilson
Case Keenum
Blake Bortles
Kirk Cousins
Jacoby Brissett
Jared Goff
Eli Manning
Brian Hoyer
Dak Prescott
DeShone Kizer
Drew Brees
[Aaron Rodgers was up there in other leagues, but he took 6 sacks. That’s a TD and a half or 150 yards. That’s Josh McCown-last-year bad.]

What the hell kind of list is that? Did anyone anywhere predict Keenum, Bortles, Brissett, Goff, Hoyer, aor Kizer in the top 12? On a positive note, Jared Goff is really starting to look like a top streaming option, and Cade Keenum at home isn’t too shabby either. Hoyer is a solid game manager, and Kizer keeps running it and racking up rushing yards and TDs, so his floor isn’t too bad (if he can keep from getting sacked).

Last week my models were all equally bad, so I’ll likely stick with Model F for one more week.

ModelTypePlayerScoreOppScoreScoreOppScoreHomeAwayHomeAwayPlayerOppDataYears
ALMXXXXXX 2015-2017
BLMXXXXXXX2015-2017
CLMXXX 2015-2017
DGibbs SamplerXXX X2015-2017
EGibbs SamplerXXX XXX2015-2017
FPLSXXXXX X2015-2017

Model A:

.Model A-1.png

Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player (Some players have a bit more of a problem playing at home or away. Looking at you, Roethlisberger…)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model B:

.Model B-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model C:

.Model C-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model D:

.Model D-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model E:

.Model E-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Home/Away*Player
Opponent
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Bayesian (Gibbs sampler)

Model F:

.Model F-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Score^2
OppScore^2
Home/Away
day (Thu/Sun/Mon)
Data years: 2015 - 2017

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model G:

.Model G-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Score*OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Partial least squares fit

Model H:

.Model H-1.png


Terms:

Player
Score
OppScore
Home/Away
Opp
Data years: 2017 only

Model details: Linear model

Weekly model summary

RankABCDEFGH
1Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersAaron RodgersAaron RodgersAaron RodgersTom BradyMatt RyanEli Manning
2Tom BradyDak PrescottTom BradyDrew BreesTom BradyAaron RodgersAlex SmithTom Brady
3Dak PrescottTom BradyDrew BreesTom BradyRussell WilsonDrew BreesTom BradyMatthew Stafford
4Russell WilsonAlex SmithRussell WilsonRussell WilsonAlex SmithDak PrescottDrew BreesCarson Wentz
5Alex SmithRussell WilsonDak PrescottCam NewtonCam NewtonKirk CousinsAaron RodgersTrevor Siemian
6Mike GlennonAndy DaltonKirk CousinsMatt RyanMatt RyanRussell WilsonRussell WilsonCarson Palmer
7Joe FlaccoCam NewtonMatt RyanKirk CousinsDak PrescottAlex SmithDak PrescottRussell Wilson
8Blake BortlesMike GlennonBen RoethlisbergerDak PrescottDrew BreesMatt RyanCarson PalmerAaron Rodgers
9Carson PalmerDrew BreesCam NewtonJay CutlerAndy DaltonBen RoethlisbergerTrevor SiemianAndy Dalton
10Andy DaltonJoe FlaccoAlex SmithAlex SmithJoe FlaccoJameis WinstonJay CutlerPhilip Rivers
11Drew BreesCarson PalmerJameis WinstonJameis WinstonKirk CousinsMarcus MariotaBen RoethlisbergerDak Prescott
12Matt RyanKirk CousinsMatthew StaffordBen RoethlisbergerJay CutlerBlake BortlesJameis WinstonDrew Brees
13Kirk CousinsBlake BortlesBlake BortlesPhilip RiversCarson PalmerCarson PalmerPhilip RiversDeShone Kizer
14Marcus MariotaMarcus MariotaMarcus MariotaAndy DaltonBlake BortlesMatthew StaffordCarson WentzDeshaun Watson
15Derek CarrMatthew StaffordPhilip RiversBlake BortlesMarcus MariotaPhilip RiversDerek CarrMatt Ryan
16Tyrod TaylorMatt RyanDerek CarrMarcus MariotaJameis WinstonCam NewtonMarcus MariotaCam Newton
17Matthew StaffordJameis WinstonTyrod TaylorMatthew StaffordTrevor SiemianDerek CarrCase KeenumJay Cutler
18Cam NewtonPhilip RiversCarson PalmerCarson PalmerPhilip RiversTyrod TaylorMatthew StaffordTyrod Taylor
19Jameis WinstonTrevor SiemianAndy DaltonTyrod TaylorTyrod TaylorAndy DaltonKirk CousinsMarcus Mariota
20Philip RiversJay CutlerEli ManningEli ManningMatthew StaffordJay CutlerAndy DaltonBlake Bortles
21Trevor SiemianTyrod TaylorJay CutlerTrevor SiemianDerek CarrJoe FlaccoBlake BortlesAlex Smith
22Brian HoyerBrian HoyerJoe FlaccoDerek CarrEli ManningEli ManningJoe FlaccoBrian Hoyer
23Ben RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerTrevor SiemianJoe FlaccoCase KeenumTrevor SiemianDeshaun WatsonCase Keenum
24Jay CutlerDerek CarrCarson WentzCase KeenumBrian HoyerCarson WentzEli ManningBen Roethlisberger
25Eli ManningEli ManningCase KeenumDeshaun WatsonBen RoethlisbergerBrian HoyerTyrod TaylorKirk Cousins
26Carson WentzCase KeenumBrian HoyerCarson WentzCarson WentzCase KeenumCam NewtonJacoby Brissett
27DeShone KizerDeShone KizerDeshaun WatsonBrian HoyerMike GlennonJosh McCownMike GlennonJared Goff
28Case KeenumCarson WentzJosh McCownDeShone KizerDeshaun WatsonDeshaun WatsonDeShone KizerDerek Carr
29Josh McCownJosh McCownDeShone KizerJosh McCownDeShone KizerDeShone KizerBrian HoyerMike Glennon
30Jared GoffJared GoffMike GlennonMike GlennonJared GoffJared GoffJosh McCownJameis Winston
31Deshaun WatsonDeshaun WatsonJacoby BrissettJared GoffJosh McCownJacoby BrissettJared GoffJosh McCown
32Jacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettJared GoffJacoby BrissettJacoby BrissettMike GlennonJacoby BrissettJoe Flacco


Conclusions

Absolutely none of these can be correct, right? Keenum, Kizer, Brisett, Hoyer, and Goff are all at the bottom, and there’s no way that’s right. Right? Alex Smith is finally up there, though.

The models were mostly tied last week, but one of the best on the year has been Model F. This week, Model F likes all the usual suspects: Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Ryan, and Roethlisberger are all in the top 12. Some streaming options in the top 12 include Smith, Winston, and Bortles. The true streaming plays who did well last week (Kizer, Goff, Hoyer, Brissett) are still way down on the list, but there are some high-level streamers up here that you can use this week (Palmer, Bortles, Rivers).

The eagle-eyed among you may have noticed two new models, Models G and H. I’m trying these out this week. They’re similar to Models F and A, respectively, but use only 2017 data. Don’t worry about them too much this week, but they have a few interesting characteristics. Model G says everything is going to be alright, almost everyone will get between 11 and 17 points (IUOH scoring which gives -1 per sack) and not to worry too much about a QB. This actually pans out; this year there have been 2-5 top scorers each week, but everyone else is just bunched up in the middle. Model H says Eli is due for a killer week. It also likes Wentz, Palmer, Kizer, Watson, Siemian, and Dalton. That’s a tough crowd to fully get behind, but this is the first model that has put some of them as high as they’ve been scoring this year.

I’d still trust Model F this week, and I’ll give you an update on the new models next week.

Week 4 DEF results

Week 4 DEF Predictions